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    MIN 9@PIT 10
    +41.2pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIN
KC

KC

57-59

4
9
MIN

MIN

55-60

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
28,242 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

KC 4 · MIN 9 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC1000010114
MIN320202009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 12, 25sim 95
    1811
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    73
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    33
    11(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 94
    171
    29(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    108
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    2510
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Kansas City Royals, 9–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Mike Yastrzemski

Mike Yastrzemski

LF

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Jeffers

Ryan Jeffers

C

1.550OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC57-59
4
9
MIN55-60
KC57-59·MIN55-60
KC

KC

57-59

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-44111111
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-55111101
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-33011001
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010001
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33000010
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-44000001
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-44010001
JJ. Rave★RF
2-44120002
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
2-44121000
SPRINT26.941
Team9-3535494228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
4.0977212
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
2.0522000
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0000110
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0000010
Team8.01499332
MIN

MIN

55-60

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. RodenA. Roden★LF
2-55220000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
2-55121101
SPRINT2622
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
3-44332011
SPRINT26.326
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
2-55222100
SPRINT27.457
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44022000
SPRINT28.688
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44012000
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
2-44020000
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-22000000
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
0-33100011
A. MartinA. MartinLF
0-11000010
Team14-37379149233
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
5.0411051
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
2.1322121
C. SandsC. SandsRP
0.2000100
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0211010
Team9.0944282

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

14

4

Runs

9

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIN wins series 4-2

May 24KCKC1@MINMIN3
May 24KCKC4@MINMIN5
May 25KCKC2@MINMIN1
Aug 9KCKC4@MINMIN9today
Aug 9KCKC2@MINMIN0
Aug 10KCKC3@MINMIN5

Season series

Series tied 4-4

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
May 24KCKC1@MINMIN3
May 24KCKC4@MINMIN5
May 25KCKC2@MINMIN1
Aug 9KCKC4@MINMIN9today
Aug 9KCKC2@MINMIN0
Aug 10KCKC3@MINMIN5
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
M. Yastrzemski

M. Yastrzemski

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 7 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
R. Jeffers

R. Jeffers

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 3 R · 1.550 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

MIN beat KC 9-4.

Win probability

MIN vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 64% WP

Wallner · homered to center (434 feet).

MINBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+8pp→ 79% WP

Keaschall · singled to right, Jeffers scored, Clemens to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC1000010114
MIN32020200—9

Period scoring

KC won 1 · MIN won 4

1
3

Inn 1

Wallner 1

0
2

Inn 2

Jeffers 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Clemens 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
2

Inn 6

Jr. 1

Jeffers 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Pasquantino 1

1

Inn 9

Isbel 1

KC
MIN

Play-by-play · 597 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  2. T9

    Witt Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  7. T9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  8. T9

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  9. T9

    Yastrzemski grounded out to shortstop, Isbel to second.

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

    +0.5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  13. T9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  14. T9

    ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  15. T9

    Isbel singled to center, Rave scored.

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

    −0.5pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  21. T9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Kyle Isbel

    · ·

    KC 4·MIN 9

  22. T9

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  23. T9

    Rave doubled to center.

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  26. T9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to John Rave

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  27. T9

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  28. T9

    India struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 3·MIN 9

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

4

Runs

9

9

Hits

14

0

Errors

1

17

TB

22

2

HR

2

2

BB

3

8

K

3

16

LOB

20

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.2%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    49.4%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.4%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688