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Live · 8
  • MLBBot 5
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +33.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    SD 3@WSH 2
    -35.2ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -41.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 6
    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -48.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    MIL 2@HOU 3
    +41.9ppmedium
  • MLBMid 5
    MIA 1@NYM 3
    +45.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    KC 0@TEX 3
    +41.3pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAA 6@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATH
ATH

ATH

65-77

10
4
LAA

LAA

66-75

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
30,779 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 10 · LAA 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH20700000110
LAA4000000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 1, 25sim 98
    1111
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    33
    11(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 96
    1811
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    12
    26(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    268
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    219
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesLAA win series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 10–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Lawrence Butler

Lawrence Butler

RF

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Oswald Peraza

Oswald Peraza

2B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH65-77
10
4
LAA66-75
ATH65-77·LAA66-75
ATH

ATH

65-77

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
0-44100023
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-33210020
SPRINT28.586
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-33001010
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-55110002
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-44111010
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
2-55222102
SPRINT26.530
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
1-44111012
SPRINT28.891
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-44113103
SPRINT27.457
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-55120001
Team9-373710982813
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BarnettM. Barnett★SP
5.0344580
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
2.0000040
E. AlvaradoE. AlvaradoRP
1.0000010
M. KellyM. KellyRP
1.0000030
Team9.03445160
LAA

LAA

66-75

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-33100002
SPRINT27.148
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
0-22100012
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.735
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-22101020
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-33001012
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.148
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-33011002
SPRINT28.278
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
0-33000002
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000012
L. DavidsonL. Davidson1B
0-11000001
M. LugoM. LugoLF
0-11000001
Team3-28284340516
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
2.1588541
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
0.2111210
J. UrenaJ. UrenaRP
5.0200060
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
1.0111121
Team9.0910108132

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

10

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAA win series 4-2

Jun 10ATHATH4@LAALAA7
Jun 11ATHATH1@LAALAA2
Jun 11ATHATH5@LAALAA6
Sep 6ATHATH10@LAALAA4today
Sep 7ATHATH17@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH3@LAALAA4

Season series

LAA lead series 8-3

May 20LAALAA4@ATHATH3
May 21LAALAA7@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
Jun 10ATHATH4@LAALAA7
Jun 11ATHATH1@LAALAA2
Jun 11ATHATH5@LAALAA6
Aug 16LAALAA3@ATHATH10
Aug 17LAALAA2@ATHATH7
Aug 17LAALAA11@ATHATH5
Sep 6ATHATH10@LAALAA4today
Sep 7ATHATH17@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH3@LAALAA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 31pp · Top 3rd Inning

ATHATH
L. Butler

L. Butler

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

M. Barnett

M. Barnett

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 5 BB

LAALAA
O. Peraza

O. Peraza

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

J. Urena

J. Urena

RP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H

How it ended

ATH beat LAA 10-4. Bleday's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+9pp→ 49% WP

Wilson · singled to center, Langeliers scored.

LAABottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+7pp→ 75% WP

Ward · walked, Neto scored, Moncada to second, Trout to third.

ATHTop 3rd Inning · 8-4
+31pp→ 77% WP

Bleday · homered to left (353 feet), Butler scored and Gelof scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH20700000110
LAA4000000004

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · LAA won 1

2
4

Inn 1

Soderstrom 1

Ward 1

0
0

Inn 2

7
0

Inn 3

Bleday 4

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Butler 1

ATH
LAA

Play-by-play · 642 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  3. B9

    Lugo struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  8. B9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Matthew Lugo

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  9. B9

    Lugo hit for Teodosio

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  10. B9

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  11. B9

    Davidson struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  17. B9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Logan Davidson

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  18. B9

    Davidson hit for d'Arnaud

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  19. B9

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  20. B9

    Peraza struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  28. B9

    Michael Kelly pitches to Oswald Peraza

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  29. B9

    Kelly relieved Alvarado

    ·

    ATH 10·LAA 4

  30. B9

    Thomas in right field.

    ATH 10·LAA 4

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

10

Runs

4

9

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

15

TB

3

2

HR

0

8

BB

5

13

K

16

25

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.4%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.2%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.