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Live · 8
  • MLBTop 3
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -14.8pphigh
  • MLBBot 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    +5.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    MIN 1@PIT 2
    +29.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    SD 1@WSH 0
    -33.7ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    KC 0@TEX 1
    +10.4pphigh
  • MLBBot 2
    BOS 0@CLE 1
    +23.8pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    MIL 1@HOU 0
    -10.1ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    LAA 4@TB 1
    -52.8ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11SF
BAL

BAL

61-76

2
13
SF

SF

68-69

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
39,220 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

BAL 2 · SF 13 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000022
SF1024030313

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 22, 25sim 96
    246
    30(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    1110
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 95
    15
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    1512
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    249
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 94
    33
    11(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Baltimore Orioles, 13–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

1.300OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL61-76
2
13
SF68-69
BAL61-76·SF68-69
BAL

BAL

61-76

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
1-22111030
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-55010002
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-55021001
SPRINT28.175
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
2-44020011
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-55000002
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-33010011
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000012
L. VazquezL. Vazquez★SS
2-44020001
D. JohnsonD. Johnson★CF
0-44100000
Team9-35352920610
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SuganoT. Sugano★SP
3.11077141
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
1.2100110
C. MartinC. MartinRP
0.2130210
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.1100100
A. JacksonA. JacksonC
1.0333200
Team8.0161310761
SF

SF

68-69

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
3-55231010
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
3-55232100
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33101012
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44211011
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-22010021
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
2-44121001
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33101021
C. KossC. Koss★2B
2-55120000
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
3-55233000
SPRINT26.428
C. SchmittC. SchmittDH
1-11111000
Team16-3737131611176
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. VerlanderJ. Verlander★SP
5.03004100
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0100100
S. BivensS. BivensRP
3.0521100
Team9.09216100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • T. Sugano
    80 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      28%·93.1 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      26%·87.1 mph·36% whiff
    • ST
      25%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    29 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      48%·96.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      28%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      24%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      32%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      12%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      8%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Jackson
    24 pitches·13% CSW
    • FA
      54%·62.2 mph·14% whiff
    • EP
      46%·40.5 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      55%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      25%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

SF

  • J. Verlander
    121 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.1 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      18%·77.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.0 mph·55% whiff
    • CH
      16%·84.0 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.0 mph·17% whiff
  • S. Bivens
    48 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      46%·95.4 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      19%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·79.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

16

2

Runs

13

3

Errors

1

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 30BALBAL8@SFSF15
Aug 30BALBAL11@SFSF1
Aug 31BALBAL2@SFSF13today

Season series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 30BALBAL8@SFSF15
Aug 30BALBAL11@SFSF1
Aug 31BALBAL2@SFSF13today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.300 OPS

T. Sugano

T. Sugano

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 10 H · 1 BB

SFSF
C. Schmitt

C. Schmitt

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SF beat BAL 13-2.

Win probability

SF vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 69% WP

Devers · homered to center (424 feet).

SFBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+7pp→ 86% WP

Devers · singled to center, Gilbert scored, Ramos to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000022
SF10240303—13

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · SF won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Devers 1

0
4

Inn 4

Gilbert 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Schmitt 1

2

Inn 9

Holliday 1

BAL
SF

Play-by-play · 679 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  2. T9

    Cowser lined out to second.

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  5. T9

    Henderson to second on wild pitch by Bivens.

    ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  6. T9

    Henderson to second on wild pitch by Bivens.

    ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  10. T9

    Spencer Bivens pitches to Colton Cowser

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  11. T9

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  12. T9

    Mountcastle lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  17. T9

    Spencer Bivens pitches to Ryan Mountcastle

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  18. T9

    ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  19. T9

    Henderson singled to center, Holliday scored.

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  23. T9

    Spencer Bivens pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    BAL 2·SF 13

  24. T9

    · ·

    BAL 1·SF 13

  25. T9

    J. Jackson fouled out to first.

    · ·

    BAL 1·SF 13

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 1·SF 13

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 1·SF 13

  28. T9

    Spencer Bivens pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    BAL 1·SF 13

  29. T9

    ·

    BAL 1·SF 13

  30. T9

    Holliday doubled to center, Johnson scored.

    · ·

    BAL 1·SF 13

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

SF

Home

2

Runs

13

9

Hits

16

3

Errors

1

10

TB

24

0

HR

1

6

BB

7

10

K

6

23

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    52.9%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.