MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5NYM

NYM

83-78

MIA

78-83

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

35,609 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
56.1%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.3%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.7± 2.3low
Max MeyerMIA
6.2± 2.2low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.7high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.9± 1.6high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.8± 1.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.6± 3.8low
Janson JunkMIA
3.0± 3.8low
David PetersonNYM
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 5 · MIA 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	5
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
F. Lindor★SS	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
SPRINT26.941
J. Soto★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
P. Alonso★1B	2-4	4	2	2	2	1	1	2
SPRINT25.29
B. Nimmo★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	3
S. Marte★RF	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McNeil★2B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT25.920
F. Alvarez★C	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT25.716
R. Mauricio★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
T. Taylor★CF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.891

Team	8-34	34	5	8	4	1	6	15

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

0-3

2-4

1-4

0-5

1-4

1-3

1-4

1-3

Team

8-34

	Pitching
C. Holmes★SP	6.0	1	0	0	3	2	0
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. RogersRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. DiazRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	9.0	1	0	0	3	5	0

Pitching

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
X. Edwards★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT2872
J. Marsee★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.765
C. Norby★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
L. Hicks★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.614
T. Johnston★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.326
G. Conine★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Lopez★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Pauley★3B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. Hernandez★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
A. RamirezC	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	1-28	28	0	1	0	0	3	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

X. Edwards★2B

1-4