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FINAL+3ATL
PIT

PIT

71-91

1
4
ATL

ATL

76-86

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,827 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

PIT 1 · ATL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0000010001
ATL200000024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 28, 25sim 98
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 98
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 98
    300
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    215
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    233
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 96
    212
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 28·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT71-91
1
4
ATL76-86
PIT71-91·ATL76-86
PIT

PIT

71-91

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
0-33000012
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-44000001
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
1-22010011
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-22010000
SPRINT27.662
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-44011001
SPRINT26.428
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
0-33000002
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.662
R. FloresR. Flores★C
0-33000001
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
1-22010011
J. SuwinskiJ. SuwinskiRF
0-11000000
B. ReynoldsB. ReynoldsLF
1-11110000
SPRINT27.969
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
0-11000000
O. CruzO. CruzCF
0-11000001
Team6-31311610311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
5.0322331
H. BarcoH. BarcoRP
2.0100030
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
1.0221110
Team8.0643471
ATL

ATL

76-86

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-44000002
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-33221010
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-33112112
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-44000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-33000011
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-33000001
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-22010011
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-33110000
SPRINT2744
Team6-2828463147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MortonC. Morton★SP
1.1200110
C. SaleC. SaleSP
5.2411290
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
Team9.06113110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    71 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      34%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      34%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.6 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      11%·77.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Barco
    27 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·85.4 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      19%·82.7 mph·33% whiff

ATL

  • C. Sale
    96 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      44%·78.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.8 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Morton
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      43%·81.8 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.0 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      60%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      40%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

1

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Sep 26PITPIT9@ATLATL3
Sep 27PITPIT3@ATLATL1
Sep 28PITPIT1@ATLATL4today

Season series

PIT wins series 4-2

May 9ATLATL2@PITPIT3
May 10ATLATL3@PITPIT2
May 11ATLATL3@PITPIT4
Sep 26PITPIT9@ATLATL3
Sep 27PITPIT3@ATLATL1
Sep 28PITPIT1@ATLATL4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 1st Inning

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Oviedo

J. Oviedo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Top reliever

5.2 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat PIT 4-1.

Win probability

ATL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 66% WP

N. Gonzales · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Triolo out at second.

ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 81% WP

Acu · ña Jr. homered to center (451 feet), Olson scored.

PITTop 7th Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 29% WP

Yorke · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0000010001
ATL20000002—4

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · ATL won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Acu 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Bart 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Olson 1

0

Inn 9

PIT
ATL

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  2. T9

    Yorke grounded out to second.

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  9. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Nick Yorke

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  10. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  11. T9

    Cruz struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

    +0.8pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  18. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Oneil Cruz

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  19. T9

    Cruz hit for Canario

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  20. T9

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  21. T9

    Bart lined out to center.

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

    +2pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  24. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Joey Bart

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  25. T9

    Iglesias relieved Kinley

    ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  28. B8

    · ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  29. B8

    Kim lined out to third.

    · ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 1·ATL 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

1

Runs

4

6

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

7

TB

11

0

HR

1

3

BB

4

11

K

7

12

LOB

10

Player projections

ATL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.6%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    54.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.2%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 11 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483