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  • MLBTop 5
    DET 1@CHW 2
    +21.7ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5TEX
CLE

CLE

64-65

0
5
TEX

TEX

66-66

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
34,577 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

CLE 0 · TEX 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000000000
TEX000400105

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 11, 25sim 98
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 98
    53
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 97
    52
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 97
    285
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    215
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 96
    33
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Cleveland Guardians, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Brayan Rocchio

Brayan Rocchio

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Rowdy Tellez

Rowdy Tellez

1B

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE64-65
0
5
TEX66-66
CLE64-65·TEX66-66
CLE

CLE

64-65

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.530
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33000001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.411
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-33000010
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-33000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-33020001
SPRINT27.354
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-22010011
SPRINT27.354
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000001
D. FryD. FryRF
0-11000001
Team5-3030050029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
3.1333431
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.1210010
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
1.0100010
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.1100110
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.1111211
N. EnrightN. EnrightRP
1.2200040
Team8.010547112
TEX

TEX

66-66

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44010011
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44012012
SPRINT2872
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
2-55020002
SPRINT24.96
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-55111102
SPRINT25.716
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-22110020
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-22112120
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000011
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-44120002
SPRINT25.920
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-44110001
Team10-333351052711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
7.0400280
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0000010
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0100000
Team9.0500290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • G. Williams
    90 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      12%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
  • N. Enright
    35 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      51%·92.7 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      49%·84.2 mph·36% whiff
  • J. Junis
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      48%·83.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      24%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.9 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Herrin
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      42%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      40%·81.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      30%·91.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.7 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • M. Kelly
    96 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      39%·87.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      24%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.4 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      13%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      31%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      31%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·80.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      15%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    6 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      50%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·77.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

0

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

TEX wins series 3-0

Aug 23CLECLE3@TEXTEX4
Aug 23CLECLE0@TEXTEX10
Aug 24CLECLE0@TEXTEX5today

Season series

TEX leads series 3-0

Aug 23CLECLE3@TEXTEX4
Aug 23CLECLE0@TEXTEX10
Aug 24CLECLE0@TEXTEX5today
Sep 26TEXTEX7@CLECLE3
Sep 27TEXTEX2@CLECLE3
Sep 28TEXTEX8@CLECLE9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CLECLE
B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

TEXTEX
R. Tellez

R. Tellez

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat CLE 5-0. Tellez's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

TEX vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 47% WP

Manzardo · singled to center.

TEXBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 83% WP

Tellez · homered to center (426 feet), A. García scored.

TEXBottom 4th Inning · 0-4
+9pp→ 93% WP

Langford · singled to right, Jung scored and Duran scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000000000
TEX00040010—5

Period scoring

CLE won 0 · TEX won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
4

Inn 4

Tellez 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Pederson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CLE
TEX

Play-by-play · 579 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  2. T9

    Kayfus grounded out to second.

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  4. T9

    Hoby Milner pitches to CJ Kayfus

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  5. T9

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  6. T9

    Manzardo grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Ramírez out at second.

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

    +1pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  8. T9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  9. T9

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  10. T9

    Ramírez singled to center.

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

    −0.6pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  15. T9

    Hoby Milner pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  16. T9

    Milner relieved Coulombe

    ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  17. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  18. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  19. B8

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  20. B8

    Pederson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  21. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  22. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  27. B8

    Nic Enright pitches to Joc Pederson

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  28. B8

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  29. B8

    Seager singled to center, Smith to third.

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 0·TEX 5

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

0

Runs

5

5

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

5

TB

17

0

HR

2

2

BB

7

9

K

11

12

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    56.6%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.2%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.