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FINAL+2PIT
PIT

PIT

71-90

3
1
ATL

ATL

75-86

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
35,007 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 3 · ATL 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0010020003
ATL0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    231
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 98
    215
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 97
    232
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 97
    231
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    231
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 27·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jack Suwinski

Jack Suwinski

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin

C

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT71-90
3
1
ATL75-86
PIT71-90·ATL75-86
PIT

PIT

71-90

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-33000000
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-55020002
SPRINT28.483
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-55010001
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-44120011
SPRINT24.85
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44111000
SPRINT28.586
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-33010010
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
2-33021000
R. FloresR. Flores★C
0-22000011
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-44111102
SPRINT27.765
T. PhamT. PhamLF
0-11000010
N. YorkeN. Yorke3B
0-11000000
Team10-35353103147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
5.2411060
C. ShugartC. ShugartRP
1.1000020
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0000020
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0100020
Team9.05110120
ATL

ATL

75-86

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-44000002
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33000001
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44120002
SPRINT26.632
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.148
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-33011000
SPRINT25.614
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-33000001
B. WiselyB. Wisely★2B
0-33000003
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
0-11000001
Team5-32321510012
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
6.0833251
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
1.0100100
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0100120
Team9.01033471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    86 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      57%·99.0 mph·35% whiff
    • CH
      22%·92.1 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      19%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • D. Santana
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      42%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      26%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      11%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      5%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Shugart
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • CH
      27%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      27%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      47%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·82.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.1 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • S. Strider
    85 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.2 mph·16% whiff
    • SL
      35%·84.4 mph·64% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      8%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·89.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Suarez
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      37%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      37%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·91.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      69%·87.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Sep 26PITPIT9@ATLATL3
Sep 27PITPIT3@ATLATL1today
Sep 28PITPIT1@ATLATL4

Season series

PIT leads series 4-1

May 9ATLATL2@PITPIT3
May 10ATLATL3@PITPIT2
May 11ATLATL3@PITPIT4
Sep 26PITPIT9@ATLATL3
Sep 27PITPIT3@ATLATL1today
Sep 28PITPIT1@ATLATL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 6th Inning

PITPIT
J. Suwinski

J. Suwinski

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H

ATLATL
D. Baldwin

D. Baldwin

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat ATL 3-1. N. Gonzales's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 34% WP

Davis · homered to left center (425 feet).

PITTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 41% WP

Suwinski · singled to right.

PITTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 58% WP

N. Gonzales · doubled to center, Horwitz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0010020003
ATL0100000001

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Ozuna 1

1
0

Inn 3

Davis 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Gonzales 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

PIT
ATL

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  3. B9

    Kim flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  9. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  11. B9

    Baldwin struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

    −8pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  14. B9

    Acuña Jr. stole second.

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  15. B9

    Acuña Jr. stole second.

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  18. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Drake Baldwin

    · ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  19. B9

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  20. B9

    Acuña Jr. reached on infield single to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

    +7pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  25. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Ronald Acuna Jr.

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  26. B9

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  27. B9

    White struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

    −5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 3·ATL 1

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

3

Runs

1

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

14

TB

8

1

HR

0

4

BB

0

7

K

12

20

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

ATL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Mitch KellerPIT
    2.5± 2.6low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.5%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.