• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 3
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -14.8pphigh
  • MLBBot 1
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    +5.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    MIN 1@PIT 2
    +29.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    SD 1@WSH 0
    -33.7ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 2
    KC 0@TEX 1
    +10.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    BOS 0@CLE 1
    +23.8pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    MIL 1@HOU 0
    -10.1ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    LAA 4@TB 1
    -52.8ppmedium
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1BAL
PIT

PIT

64-83

2
3
BAL

BAL

69-77

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
13,957 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

PIT 2 · BAL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1010000002
BAL110000103

Final play

“Cruz caught stealing second, catcher to second.”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 11·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Alexander Canario

Alexander Canario

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jackson Holliday

Jackson Holliday

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT64-83
2
3
BAL69-77
PIT64-83·BAL69-77
PIT

PIT

64-83

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.483
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-33000011
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000002
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
2-44021001
SPRINT28.586
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT27.662
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-33000002
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.662
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
2-44121102
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
1-33010011
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
0-11000001
Team9-33332921311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
5.2522350
C. HoldermanC. HoldermanRP
1.0111210
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.1100020
Team8.0733580
BAL

BAL

69-77

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-44120000
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-33010011
E. RiveraE. Rivera★3B
1-44011001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-44011000
SPRINT29.194
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-22100021
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-44000001
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
0-22000021
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT2872
Team7-3131373058
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PovichC. Povich★SP
5.2522261
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.1100010
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0100010
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
1.0100120
K. AkinK. AkinRP
1.0100010
Team9.09223111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      42%·95.5 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.0 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      42%·91.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      38%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.2 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sisk
    18 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      39%·90.3 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      28%·80.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      22%·91.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      6%·76.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·85.4 mph·— whiff

BAL

  • C. Povich
    93 pitches·28% CSW
    • CU
      30%·79.1 mph·22% whiff
    • FF
      30%·92.1 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      29%·83.9 mph·47% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      36%·84.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FC
      62%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Akin
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      46%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      11%·91.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 9PITPIT2@BALBAL3
Sep 10PITPIT1@BALBAL2
Sep 11PITPIT2@BALBAL3today

Season series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 9PITPIT2@BALBAL3
Sep 10PITPIT1@BALBAL2
Sep 11PITPIT2@BALBAL3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 7th Inning

PITPIT
A. Canario

A. Canario

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Oviedo

J. Oviedo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

BALBAL
J. Holliday

J. Holliday

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

C. Povich

C. Povich

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat PIT 3-2. Beavers's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

Cruz caught stealing second, catcher to second.

Win probability

BAL vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+12pp→ 69% WP

Rivera · singled to left.

BALBottom 7th Inning · 2-3
+20pp→ 82% WP

Beavers · reached on infield single to second, Holliday scored, Henderson to second.

BALTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 100% WP

Peguero · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1010000002
BAL11000010—3

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · BAL won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Gonzales 1

Rivera 1

0
1

Inn 2

Mayo 1

1
0

Inn 3

Canario 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Beavers 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PIT
BAL

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    Cruz caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  2. T9

    Cruz caught stealing second, catcher to second.

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  6. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Jared Triolo

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  7. T9

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  8. T9

    Peguero struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

    +13pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  14. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Liover Peguero

    · ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  15. T9

    Cruz ran for Canario

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  16. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  17. T9

    Canario reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

    −8pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  19. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Alexander Canario

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  20. T9

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  21. T9

    Yorke grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

    +6pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  26. T9

    Keegan Akin pitches to Nick Yorke

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  27. T9

    Akin relieved Strowd

    ·

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  28. T9

    Beavers in right field.

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  29. T9

    Carlson in left field.

    PIT 2·BAL 3

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PIT 2·BAL 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

2

Runs

3

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

15

TB

8

1

HR

0

3

BB

5

11

K

8

15

LOB

21

Player projections

BAL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    56.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.1%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 27, 25sim 98
    215
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 98
    50
    13(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 98
    53
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 97
    33
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    233
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 97
    285
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs