• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +39.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -55.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 4@WSH 7
    +51.1pplow
  • MLBTop 9
    TOR 4@BAL 1
    -48.8pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    KC 6@TEX 3
    -56.7pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    LAA 7@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    MIA 1@NYM 5
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
  • WNBAEnd of 1st
    LA 18@CON 20
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4ATL
ATL

ATL

73-83

6
2
DET

DET

85-71

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
34,042 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 6 · DET 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0011100036
DET0000000022

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesATL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ha-Seong Kim

Ha-Seong Kim

SS

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL73-83
6
2
DET85-71
ATL73-83·DET85-71
ATL

ATL

73-83

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-55000000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-33110021
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-44121011
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44121010
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-55111000
SPRINT27.354
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-33112111
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-44000013
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-55021001
SPRINT27.148
V. BrujanV. Brujan★SS
2-33120010
L. WilliamsL. WilliamsSS
0-11000000
Team11-37376116177
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
5.0600360
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.1100110
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.2000010
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
1.0000000
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0200010
D. DoddD. DoddRP
0.1222100
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
0.2000010
Team9.011225100
DET

DET

85-71

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-22000011
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-44121010
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-55020000
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44021001
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-55000004
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000011
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
3-44030001
SPRINT27.765
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
2-33020011
SPRINT26.941
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-22000000
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11100010
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000001
T. SweeneyT. SweeneySS
0-11000000
Team11-363621120510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
5.2533351
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.2400010
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
0.2000110
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0000100
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0100000
Team9.01166771

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • S. Strider
    101 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.8 mph·42% whiff
    • CU
      17%·76.8 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • FC
      39%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.7 mph·— whiff
  • P. Johnson
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CU
      69%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      85%·88.4 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Suarez
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      36%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·81.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      18%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.8 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Lee
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      60%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      38%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    97 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.8 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      21%·87.4 mph·57% whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SV
      4%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    27 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      59%·92.1 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      37%·81.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.1 mph·— whiff
  • T. Holton
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      47%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rainey
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      88%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      100%·86.5 mph·33% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      60%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·81.3 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

11

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 3-0

Sep 19ATLATL10@DETDET1
Sep 20ATLATL6@DETDET5
Sep 21ATLATL6@DETDET2today

Season series

ATL wins series 3-0

Sep 19ATLATL10@DETDET1
Sep 20ATLATL6@DETDET5
Sep 21ATLATL6@DETDET2today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 4th Inning

ATLATL
H. Kim

H. Kim

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat DET 6-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 53% WP

Acu · ña Jr. singled to right, Bruján scored, Olson to third.

ATLTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 66% WP

Kim · homered to left center (383 feet).

ATLTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+12pp→ 80% WP

Baldwin · tripled to left, Olson scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0011100036
DET0000000022

Period scoring

ATL won 4 · DET won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Acu 1

1
0

Inn 4

Kim 1

1
0

Inn 5

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3
2

Inn 9

Albies 1

Torres 1

ATL
DET

Play-by-play · 681 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATL 6·DET 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  3. B9

    Pérez flied out to left.

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  6. B9

    Carpenter to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  7. B9

    Carpenter to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  10. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Wenceel Perez

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  11. B9

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  12. B9

    Torkelson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

    −1pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  18. B9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  19. B9

    Iglesias relieved Dodd

    ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  20. B9

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  21. B9

    Greene hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored.

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

    −3pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 1

  27. B9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 2

  28. B9

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 1

  29. B9

    Carpenter singled to center, Torres to third.

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 1

    +2pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 6·DET 1

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

6

Runs

2

11

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

18

TB

14

1

HR

0

7

BB

5

7

K

10

20

LOB

24

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Keider MonteroDET
    2.5± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    52.4%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.7%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 97
    293
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    215
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    295
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 95
    212
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    156
    6(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 94
    170
    11(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs