MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIA

NYM

82-78

MIA

78-82

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

34,196 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
54.9%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.2%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.1%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.7± 2.3low
Max MeyerMIA
6.2± 2.2low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 1.4high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.7high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.9± 1.6high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

Heriberto HernandezMIA
0.8± 1.3high
Javier SanojaMIA
0.8± 1.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.6± 3.8low
Janson JunkMIA
3.0± 3.8low
David PetersonNYM
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYM 2 · MIA 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
MIA	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
F. Lindor★SS	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
SPRINT26.941
J. Soto★LF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
B. Nimmo★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso★1B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeil★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Baty★3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Alvarez★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.716
C. Mullins★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Torrens★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.428
R. MauricioSS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	6-33	33	2	6	2	1	3	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

2-4

0-4

1-4

0-3

0-1

1-4

0-3

1-4

0-2

0-1

Team

6-33

	Pitching
B. Sproat★SP	4.2	5	4	4	1	2	0
G. SotoRP	1.1	3	2	2	0	1	1
H. BrazobanRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0
K. HergetRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team	8.0	10	6	6	1	6	1

Pitching

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
J. Marsee★CF	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. Ramirez★C	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.354
X. Edwards★2B	3-3	3	1	3	1	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
L. Hicks★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. Lopez★SS	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.381
G. Conine★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
T. Johnston★RF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. Hernandez★LF	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	1	1
SPRINT28.483
G. Pauley★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Norby1B	1-2	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT2872

Team	10-32	32	6	10	6	1	1	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI