MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYM

NYM

76-65

CIN

70-71

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

21,231 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
51.3%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.7± 2.3low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 3.8low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
5.5± 3.2low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.3± 1.1medium
Sal StewartCIN
1.3± 1.4high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.7high
Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.2± 1.7high
Sal StewartCIN
2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.8± 1.0high
Juan SotoNYM
0.8± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.5± 3.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 2.3low
Brady SingerCIN
3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 5 · CIN 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
CIN	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
F. Lindor★SS	1-1	1	2	1	0	0	3	0
SPRINT26.941
J. Soto★LF	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
SPRINT25.513
P. Alonso★1B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Vientos★1B	2-4	4	2	2	2	1	0	1
SPRINT25.513
B. Nimmo★RF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT28.278
S. Marte★RF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT25.411
J. McNeil★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. Alvarez★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Acuna★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Baty3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	10-35	35	5	10	5	1	4	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-1

2-4

0-5

2-4

1-4

1-4

1-4

1-4

1-4

0-1

Team

10-35

	Pitching
D. Peterson★SP	5.1	7	4	4	1	4	0
R. StanekRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	0
B. RaleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. DiazRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	2	0
Team	9.0	9	4	4	4	11	0

Pitching

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
T. Friedl★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. Marte★RF	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
E. De La Cruz★SS	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. Andujar★DH	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Hays★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT27.354
S. Steer★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.483
T. Stephenson★C	1-3	3	1	1	2	0	0	1
SPRINT26.735
K. Hayes★3B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
SPRINT26.941
M. McLain★2B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
SPRINT28.586
G. LuxLF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	9-34	34	4	9	4	0	4	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI