MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SF

ARI

72-74

74-71

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

30,883 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
53.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.5%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
6.1± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.4± 2.3low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 3.5low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.6± 1.3high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.3± 1.2high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
3.0± 2.2high
Casey SchmittSF
2.4± 2.2high
Willy AdamesSF
2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.4high
Casey SchmittSF
0.9± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.5low
Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.9low
Logan WebbSF
3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

ARI 3 · SF 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3
SF	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
K. Marte★2B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Perdomo★SS	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
SPRINT26.838
C. Carroll★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander★3B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.175
I. Vargas★1B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.941
T. Tawa★LF	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.662
J. Lawlar★LF	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. McCann★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Barrosa★CF	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. McCarthyLF	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. KaiserSS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	8-33	33	3	8	3	0	3	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-5

1-2

0-4

2-4

1-4

2-3

1-2

0-3

0-2

1-1

0-1

0-1

0-1

Team

8-33

	Pitching
Z. Gallen★SP	6.2	5	5	5	3	3	2
J. CurtissRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team	8.0	5	5	5	3	5	2

Pitching

Player

Z. Gallen★SP

6.2

J. CurtissRP

1.1

Team

8.0

	Batting
H. Ramos★LF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.251
R. Devers★1B	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
W. Adames★SS	1-4	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
SPRINT27.457
D. Smith★DH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Chapman★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.175
J. Lee★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Schmitt★DH	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
D. Gilbert★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. Bailey★C	1-2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
SPRINT24.32

Team	5-27	27	5	5	5	2	3	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI