
CIN
74-73

ATH
68-80
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
ATH
.705
OPS
.717
▶.747
.312
OBP
.319
▶.330
4.19
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.51
4.68
Team ERA
4.18
4.85
1.46
WHIP
1.31
▶1.44
7.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.3
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ATH wins
CIN 0 · ATH 3 (by 3)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked ATH +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
thletics held off Cincinnati Reds, 3–0.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CIN · top performer

TJ Friedl
CF
2-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
ATH · top performer

Carlos Cortes
RF
3-2
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .265 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .264 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .266 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .266 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .219 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .226 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .237 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .281 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .226 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .361 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 32 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 90 | |
| 2.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 36 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 126 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .238 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .265 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .299 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .267 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .317 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .219 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .234 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .328 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| .190 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 30 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 88 | |
| 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 31 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 165 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCIN
No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.
ATH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
Hits
6
0
Runs
3
0
Errors
1
Current series
ATH wins series 3-0
Season series
ATH leads series 1-0
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
T. Friedl
CFBatter of the game
1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS
B. Singer
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB
C. Cortes
RFBatter of the game2-HR game
2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.333 OPS
J.T. Ginn
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB
How it ended
ATH beat CIN 3-0.
Win probability
ATH vs CIN
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactButler · homered to center (400 feet).
Cortes · homered to center (408 feet).
Andujar · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Friedl out at second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
Period scoring
CIN won 0 · ATH won 3
Inn 1
Butler 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Cortes 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Cortes 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 546 plays
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Andujar struck out swinging.
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Sean Newcomb pitches to Miguel Andujar
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Friedl struck out swinging.
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
+1pp
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Sean Newcomb pitches to TJ Friedl
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
McLain struck out looking.
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
+1pp
Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 6 : Ball 2
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 5 : Ball 1
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Sean Newcomb pitches to Matt McLain
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Newcomb relieved Sterner
·
CIN 0·ATH 3
Top of the 9th inning
CIN 0·ATH 3
End of the 8th inning
CIN 0·ATH 3
Team stats
CIN
Away
Stat
ATH
Home
0
Runs
3
6
Hits
6
0
Errors
1
8
TB
15
0
HR
3
5
BB
1
14
K
5
27
LOB
7
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 84 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.6%
ensemble · ATH favored
Elo Static
52.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.2%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.9%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.10 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.