HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3ATH
CIN

CIN

74-73

0
3
ATH

ATH

68-80

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,333 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

CIN

league avg

ATH

ATH

.705

OPS

.717

▶

.747

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.330

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.51

4.68

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.85

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.44

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

CIN 0 · ATH 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
ATH101000013

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Athletics held off Cincinnati Reds, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. HaysCIN−30.3pp
  2. 2G. LuxCIN−21.8pp
  3. 3C. CortesATH+19.7pp

CIN · top performer

CIN
TJ Friedl

TJ Friedl

CF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Carlos Cortes

Carlos Cortes

RF

3.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlCF
.2652010021
G. LuxLF
.2641000020
E. De La CruzSS
.2664010001
A. HaysLF
.2664010002
T. StephensonC
.2193000012
W. BensonRF
.2264010002
S. SteerLF
.2374010002
K. Hayes3B
.2814010001
M. McLain2B
.2264000002
- M. AndujarDH
.3612000001
Team320600514

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. SingerSP
6.03221490
C. BurnsSP
2.03110136
Team8.063315126

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerRF
.2384121101
S. LangeliersC
.2654010001
N. Kurtz1B
.2994000001
B. RookerDH
.2674010000
J. WilsonSS
.3173000000
J. BledayLF
.2192000011
D. HernaizSS
.2343000000
C. CortesRF
.3283222200
Z. Gelof3B
.1903000001
Team30363315

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J.T. GinnSP
4.12004688
T. FergusonRP
1.21001331
H. HarrisRP
1.01000012
J. SternerRP
1.02000216
S. NewcombRP
1.00000318
Team9.0600514165

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

ATH

  • H. Harris
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·74.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

0

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Sep 13CINCIN0@ATHATH3today
Sep 14CINCIN5@ATHATH11
Sep 14CINCIN4@ATHATH7

Season series

ATH leads series 1-0

Sep 13CINCIN0@ATHATH3today
Sep 14CINCIN5@ATHATH11
Sep 14CINCIN4@ATHATH7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

CINCIN
T. Friedl

T. Friedl

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
C. Cortes

C. Cortes

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.333 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

ATH beat CIN 3-0.

Win probability

ATH vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 59% WP

Butler · homered to center (400 feet).

ATHBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+17pp→ 73% WP

Cortes · homered to center (408 feet).

ATHTop 7th Inning · 0-2
+14pp→ 86% WP

Andujar · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Friedl out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0000000000
ATH10100001—3

Period scoring

CIN won 0 · ATH won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Butler 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Cortes 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Cortes 1

0

Inn 9

CIN
ATH

Play-by-play · 546 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  2. T9

    Andujar struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  6. T9

    Sean Newcomb pitches to Miguel Andujar

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  7. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  8. T9

    Friedl struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  16. T9

    Sean Newcomb pitches to TJ Friedl

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  17. T9

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  18. T9

    McLain struck out looking.

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

    +1pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  27. T9

    Sean Newcomb pitches to Matt McLain

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  28. T9

    Newcomb relieved Sterner

    ·

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 0·ATH 3

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 0·ATH 3

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

0

Runs

3

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

8

TB

15

0

HR

3

5

BB

1

14

K

5

27

LOB

7

Player projections

ATH vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • J.T. GinnATH
    5.0± 2.9medium
  • Gage JumpATH
    4.8± 1.7low

Hits

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Jacob WilsonATH
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Zack GelofATH
    1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    2.5± 2.5high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    2.3± 3.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Jacob WilsonATH
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 2.4low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.1± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.2%

    P(ATH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.9%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.