HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    TEX 1@BOS 6
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:58 - 4th
    TOR 73@WSH 81
    +37.8pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3SD
SD

SD

83-69

7
4
NYM

NYM

78-74

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,783 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

NYM

NYM

.652

OPS

.715

▶

.662

.292

OBP

.319

.292

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

3.97

3.96

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.29

WHIP

1.31

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 7 · NYM 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD1100400017
NYM1001101004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into New York Mets and beat them, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. PetersonNYM−58.6pp
  2. 2J. CronenworthSD+49.2pp
  3. 3L. ArraezSD+36.5pp

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2653220020
L. Arraez2B
.2874120010
M. Machado3B
.2795134100
G. Sheets1B
.2594001002
R. LaureanoLF
.2864121110
J. MerrillCF
.2635120001
J. Iglesias2B
.2244000011
J. Cronenworth2B
.2513111000
E. DiazC
.2062000000
Team347127254

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. PivettaSP
4.27330584
A. MorejonRP
1.10000220
J. EstradaRP
0.11111011
M. MillerRP
1.20000219
R. SuarezRP
1.01001026
Team9.094429160

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorSS
.2644010010
J. SotoLF
.2615111101
P. Alonso1B
.2704121102
B. NimmoRF
.2614000002
S. MarteRF
.2754111101
J. McNeil2B
.2534000000
B. Baty3B
.2594030001
F. AlvarezC
.2554111100
C. MullinsCF
.1872000012
- M. Vientos1B
.2371000000
Team36494429

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. PetersonSP
5.06663185
D. HamelSP
1.03000013
G. SotoRP
1.01001219
R. HelsleyRP
1.00001018
R. StanekRP
1.02110117
Team9.0127754152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • N. Pivetta
    84 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.0 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      33%·79.4 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.8 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      46%·99.2 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      27%·91.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      65%·98.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Miller
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      58%·87.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      42%·101.3 mph·14% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      45%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.2 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    85 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      40%·91.8 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      19%·84.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    19 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      42%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      37%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·83.4 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      61%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      39%·98.6 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      53%·99.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      18%·89.4 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      18%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      12%·91.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

9

7

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Sep 16SDSD3@NYMNYM8
Sep 17SDSD7@NYMNYM4today
Sep 18SDSD1@NYMNYM6

Season series

SD leads series 4-1

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5
Sep 16SDSD3@NYMNYM8
Sep 17SDSD7@NYMNYM4today
Sep 18SDSD1@NYMNYM6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 5th Inning

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 7 H

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SD beat NYM 7-4. Machado's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 52% WP

Alonso · homered to left center (409 feet).

NYMBottom 4th Inning · 2-2
+16pp→ 53% WP

Marte · homered to left center (418 feet).

SDTop 5th Inning · 6-2
+26pp→ 90% WP

Machado · homered to left center (401 feet), Cronenworth scored, Tatis Jr. scored and Arraez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD1100400017
NYM1001101004

Period scoring

SD won 3 · NYM won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Sheets 1

Alonso 1

1
0

Inn 2

Cronenworth 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Marte 1

4
1

Inn 5

Machado 4

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Laureano 1

SD
NYM

Play-by-play · 607 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 7·NYM 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  3. B9

    J. Soto lined out to pitcher.

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  9. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  10. B9

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  11. B9

    Lindor walked.

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

    +3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  18. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Francisco Lindor

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  19. B9

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  20. B9

    Vientos grounded out to third.

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

    −2pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  26. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Mark Vientos

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  27. B9

    Vientos hit for Mullins

    ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  28. B9

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

  29. B9

    Alvarez grounded out to pitcher, Baty to second.

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

    −4pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·NYM 4

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

4

12

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

18

TB

22

2

HR

4

5

BB

2

4

K

9

14

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.2± 2.8low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.2± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    1.1± 1.5high
  • A.J. EwingNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Carson BengeNYM
    2.1± 3.6high
  • Jared YoungNYM
    1.8± 2.1high
  • Marcus SemienNYM
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.6± 3.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.3%

    P(NYM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.2%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.