MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CLE

74-73

CLE

75-71

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

15,962 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
53.3%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.1low
Michael WachaKC
5.4± 2.1low

Hits

Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.1± 0.8high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.7± 1.5high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.5high
Jose RamirezCLE
0.5± 0.7high
Rhys HoskinsCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.7± 3.7low
Noah CameronKC
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

KC 2 · CLE 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
M. Yastrzemski★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino★1B	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
SPRINT25.411
M. Garcia★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. Perez★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT241
J. Caglianone★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT27.148
J. India★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
K. Isbel★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Maile★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Loftin2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	5-32	32	2	5	2	1	4	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

0-4

1-3

0-3

1-4

1-4

0-3

0-4

1-3

0-1

Team

5-32

	Pitching
S. Kolek★SP	6.2	3	1	1	1	4	0
J. SchreiberRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1
Team	8.0	5	3	3	1	5	1

Pitching

Player

S. Kolek★SP

6.2

J. SchreiberRP

1.1

Team

8.0

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.530
G. Valera★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Ramirez★3B	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
K. Manzardo★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.411
N. Jones★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. Schneemann★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Rocchio★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Naylor★C	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.354
C. Kayfus★LF	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	0

Team	5-29	29	3	5	3	1	1	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI