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Live · 8
  • MLBTop 4
    BOS 1@CLE 1
    -7.9pphigh
  • MLBBot 3
    MIA 0@NYM 0
    +15.0pphigh
  • MLBBot 4
    TOR 2@BAL 1
    -26.2ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    SD 3@WSH 1
    -43.2pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    MIL 1@HOU 3
    +50.1pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    KC 0@TEX 3
    +41.1pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    LAA 5@TB 1
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    MIN 2@PIT 7
    +46.5pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1KC
KC

KC

74-72

4
3
CLE

CLE

74-71

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
16,816 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 4 · CLE 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC1010002004
CLE2001000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC74-72
4
3
CLE74-71
KC74-72·CLE74-71
KC

KC

74-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44111000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44120001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-44021000
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44010000
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT27.765
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
0-44000002
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-44000001
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-22000010
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000000
T. TolbertT. Tolbert2B
0-11100000
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
1-22111000
SPRINT2872
Team8-3535484016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BowlanJ. Bowlan★RP
2.0322131
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.2111210
S. LongS. LongRP
0.1100100
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
2.0100110
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
2.0100010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000000
Team9.0733561
CLE

CLE

74-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-55020000
SPRINT26.530
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
0-33100011
SPRINT25.513
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-33010010
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-33112110
SPRINT25.411
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-22100011
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000002
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-44000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-33020010
SPRINT27.354
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-44011000
SPRINT27.354
N. JonesN. JonesRF
0-11000000
Team7-3232373156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. AllenL. Allen★RP
5.0621020
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.0000010
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.1122100
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
0.2100000
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000020
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0000010
Team9.0843160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • J. Bowlan
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Avila
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      42%·82.4 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      65%·97.6 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      23%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·98.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      60%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      21%·76.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.3 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      7%·84.9 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • L. Allen
    86 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      30%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      28%·79.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      20%·82.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      20%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      42%·87.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      37%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      16%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·93.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      29%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      100%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      36%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

CLE wins series 5-2

Apr 11KCKC0@CLECLE7
Apr 12KCKC3@CLECLE6
Apr 13KCKC4@CLECLE2
Sep 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
Sep 9KCKC0@CLECLE2
Sep 10KCKC4@CLECLE3today
Sep 11KCKC2@CLECLE3

Season series

CLE leads series 7-5

Mar 27CLECLE7@KCKC4
Mar 29CLECLE3@KCKC4
Mar 30CLECLE6@KCKC2
Apr 11KCKC0@CLECLE7
Apr 12KCKC3@CLECLE6
Apr 13KCKC4@CLECLE2
Jul 26CLECLE0@KCKC0
Jul 26CLECLE3@KCKC5
Jul 26CLECLE6@KCKC4
Jul 27CLECLE1@KCKC4
Sep 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
Sep 9KCKC0@CLECLE2
Sep 10KCKC4@CLECLE3today
Sep 11KCKC2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 7th Inning

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

J. Bowlan

J. Bowlan

RP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

L. Allen

L. Allen

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 6 H

How it ended

KC beat CLE 4-3. Loftin's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 71% WP

Manzardo · homered to right (436 feet), Valera scored.

CLEBottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 76% WP

Naylor · singled to right, Martínez scored, Rocchio to third.

KCTop 7th Inning · 3-3
+32pp→ 55% WP

Loftin · singled to left, Tolbert scored on error, Loftin to second, Loftin safe at third on throwing error by catcher Naylor.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC1010002004
CLE2001000003

Period scoring

KC won 2 · CLE won 2

1
2

Inn 1

India 1

Manzardo 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Pasquantino 1

0
1

Inn 4

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Loftin 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

KC
CLE

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 4·CLE 3

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  3. B9

    Kwan lined out to left.

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

    −3pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  8. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Steven Kwan

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  9. B9

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  10. B9

    Naylor flied out to left.

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

    −4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  20. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Bo Naylor

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  21. B9

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  22. B9

    Rocchio popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

    −8pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  25. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  26. B9

    Estévez relieved Erceg

    ·

    KC 4·CLE 3

  27. B9

    Yastrzemski in right field.

    KC 4·CLE 3

  28. B9

    Grichuk in left field.

    KC 4·CLE 3

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 4·CLE 3

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    KC 4·CLE 3

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

4

Runs

3

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

10

TB

11

0

HR

1

1

BB

5

6

K

6

12

LOB

12

Player projections

CLE vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    54.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 10, 25sim 98
    295
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    173
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    293
    26(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    73
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    180
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 95
    72
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs