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  • MLBBot 2
    CHC 0@STL 0
    +10.6ppmedium
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    ATL 1@CIN 0
    -27.7ppmedium
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    LA 57@CON 56
    +11.9pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
NYM

NYM

76-67

2
3
CIN

CIN

72-71

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
25,662 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

NYM 2 · CIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0010000012
CIN000102003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 68-46
62%Last 30 · 331-205
Receipts →

Player projections

CIN vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    51.4%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.9%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.3%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 5, 25sim 98
    121
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    285
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 96
    72
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 96
    215
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    170
    11(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    174
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off New York Mets, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brett Baty

Brett Baty

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM76-67
2
3
CIN72-71
NYM76-67·CIN72-71
NYM

NYM

76-67

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44111102
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-33010012
SPRINT28.278
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-44000002
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000002
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-33000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-33111100
SPRINT26.735
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-22000001
M. VientosM. Vientos1B
0-11000000
Team3-30302322212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SproatB. Sproat★SP
6.0333470
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.0100010
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000010
Team8.0433490
CIN

CIN

72-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.838
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
1-33210011
SPRINT28.992
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44111001
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-33012000
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-33000001
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
0-33000001
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-22000011
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
1-22010011
SPRINT26.941
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000002
Team4-2626343049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. GreeneH. Greene★SP
7.01112121
N. MartinezN. MartinezSP
1.0000000
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0211001
Team9.03222122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • B. Sproat
    88 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      27%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      22%·79.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FS
      35%·88.4 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      29%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      73%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·74.1 mph·50% whiff

CIN

  • H. Greene
    98 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      47%·100.2 mph·44% whiff
    • SL
      31%·90.7 mph·46% whiff
    • FS
      22%·89.1 mph·40% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • SV
      55%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      45%·96.1 mph·17% whiff
  • N. Martinez
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      43%·79.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      29%·89.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

4

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Sep 5NYMNYM5@CINCIN4
Sep 6NYMNYM3@CINCIN6
Sep 7NYMNYM2@CINCIN3today

Season series

CIN wins series 4-2

Jul 18CINCIN8@NYMNYM4
Jul 19CINCIN5@NYMNYM2
Jul 20CINCIN2@NYMNYM3
Sep 5NYMNYM5@CINCIN4
Sep 6NYMNYM3@CINCIN6
Sep 7NYMNYM2@CINCIN3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 9th Inning

NYMNYM
B. Baty

B. Baty

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Sproat

B. Sproat

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

CINCIN
K. Hayes

K. Hayes

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

H. Greene

H. Greene

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 12 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CIN beat NYM 3-2. Marte's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

CIN vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 44% WP

Baty · homered to right (381 feet).

CINBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+16pp→ 78% WP

De La Cruz · doubled to center, Marte scored, De La Cruz to third.

CINTop 9th Inning · 2-3
+28pp→ 100% WP

Marte · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Nimmo out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0010000012
CIN00010200—3

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · CIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Baty 1

0
1

Inn 4

Hays 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Soto 1

NYM
CIN

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  2. T9

    Marte grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Nimmo out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

    +28pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  8. T9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Starling Marte

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  9. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  10. T9

    Nimmo singled to left, Acuña to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

    −8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  16. T9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  17. T9

    Acuña ran for Alonso

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  18. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  19. T9

    Alonso safe at first on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

    −8pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  25. T9

    Tony Santillan pitches to Pete Alonso

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  26. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  27. T9

    J. Soto homered to right center (393 feet).BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

    −7pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 1·CIN 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 1·CIN 3

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

2

Runs

3

3

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

9

TB

5

2

HR

0

2

BB

4

12

K

9

6

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872