MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CLE

CLE

59-55

NYM

63-52

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citi Field · Queens, New York

40,072 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.1%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.7± 2.3low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.1low

Hits

Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.7high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high
Kyle ManzardoCLE
1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

Juan SotoNYM
0.8± 1.1high
Angel MartinezCLE
0.5± 0.5high
Jose RamirezCLE
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
David PetersonNYM
2.8± 3.4low
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 4 · NYM 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.530
A. Martinez★LF	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT27.765
J. Ramirez★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. Fry★RF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT25.716
C. Santana★1B	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. Arias★SS	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT26.530
C. Kayfus★LF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
B. Rocchio★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Hedges★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team	7-34	34	4	7	4	2	2	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

1-4

1-4

1-4

0-3

1-4

2-4

0-4

0-3

Team

7-34

	Pitching
G. Williams★SP	8.2	1	1	1	4	6	1
H. GaddisRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	9.0	1	1	1	4	6	1

Pitching

Player

G. Williams★SP

8.2

H. GaddisRP

0.1

Team

9.0

	Batting
F. Lindor★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.941
J. Soto★LF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT25.513
P. Alonso★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.29
B. Nimmo★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	3	1
SPRINT28.278
M. Vientos★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
J. McNeil★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mullins★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Torrens★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Baty★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	1-28	28	1	1	1	1	4	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI