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FINAL+2CLE
KC

KC

73-72

0
2
CLE

CLE

74-70

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
15,458 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

KC 0 · CLE 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
CLE100100002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 68-46
62%Last 30 · 331-205
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 11, 25sim 97
    72
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    170
    11(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    52
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    54
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    231
    1(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 94
    172
    25(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 9·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Kansas City Royals, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Jonathan India

Jonathan India

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Jose Ramirez

Jose Ramirez

3B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC73-72
0
2
CLE74-70
KC73-72·CLE74-70
KC

KC

73-72

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-33000001
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000001
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
2-33020001
SPRINT27.765
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-33000000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.941
Team5-3131050007
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
7.0622081
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.1100110
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.2000000
Team8.0722191
CLE

CLE

74-70

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-33000011
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.765
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
3-44231100
SPRINT27.251
D. FryD. Fry★RF
2-33021001
SPRINT25.716
J. NoelJ. Noel★RF
0-33000003
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-33000001
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.354
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33000001
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-33000001
Team7-2929272119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
8.0400050
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0100020
Team9.0500070

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • N. Cameron
    100 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      26%·93.1 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      24%·88.7 mph·6% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.5 mph·73% whiff
    • CH
      15%·82.7 mph·40% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      68%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      17%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.6 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    92 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      49%·92.8 mph·5% whiff
    • CH
      34%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      12%·80.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      5%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      65%·97.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      24%·86.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      12%·85.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 5-2

Apr 11KCKC0@CLECLE7
Apr 12KCKC3@CLECLE6
Apr 13KCKC4@CLECLE2
Sep 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
Sep 9KCKC0@CLECLE2today
Sep 10KCKC4@CLECLE3
Sep 11KCKC2@CLECLE3

Season series

CLE leads series 7-4

Mar 27CLECLE7@KCKC4
Mar 29CLECLE3@KCKC4
Mar 30CLECLE6@KCKC2
Apr 11KCKC0@CLECLE7
Apr 12KCKC3@CLECLE6
Apr 13KCKC4@CLECLE2
Jul 26CLECLE0@KCKC0
Jul 26CLECLE3@KCKC5
Jul 26CLECLE6@KCKC4
Jul 27CLECLE1@KCKC4
Sep 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
Sep 9KCKC0@CLECLE2today
Sep 10KCKC4@CLECLE3
Sep 11KCKC2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
J. India

J. India

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H

CLECLE
J. Ramirez

J. Ramirez

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

CLE beat KC 2-0.

Win probability

CLE vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLEBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Ram · írez homered to left center (380 feet).

KCTop 9th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 14% WP

Isbel · singled to center.

CLETop 9th Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 92% WP

Pasquantino · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000000000
CLE10010000—2

Period scoring

KC won 0 · CLE won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Fry 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
CLE

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  2. T9

    Perez struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

    +8pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  9. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Salvador Perez

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  10. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  11. T9

    Pasquantino struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

    +11pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  17. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  18. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  19. T9

    Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

    −10pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  21. T9

    Isbel to second on wild pitch by Smith.

    ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  22. T9

    Isbel to second on wild pitch by Smith.

    ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  25. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  26. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  27. T9

    Garcia flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

    +5pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·CLE 2

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

0

Runs

2

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

5

TB

12

0

HR

1

0

BB

1

7

K

9

8

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CLE vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    53.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.