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Live · 3
  • MLBEnd 2
    CHC 0@STL 0
    -12.2pphigh
  • MLBMid 2
    ATL 1@CIN 0
    -27.7ppmedium
  • WNBA1:33 - 3rd
    LA 58@CON 58
    +16.8pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2CIN
CIN

CIN

73-72

4
2
SD

SD

79-66

Petco Park · San Diego, California
41,364 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 4 · SD 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN1100000024
SD0000200002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 68-46
62%Last 30 · 331-205
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 21, 25sim 97
    284
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 97
    173
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 97
    284
    13(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    265
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    242
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 95
    52
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 9·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into San Diego Padres and beat them, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Will Benson

Will Benson

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN73-72
4
2
SD79-66
CIN73-72·SD79-66
CIN

CIN

73-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-44000001
S. StewartS. Stewart★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT26.530
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT2872
A. HaysA. Hays★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-22100022
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
1-44112100
SPRINT26.735
W. BensonW. Benson★RF
1-22111100
SPRINT2872
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-33000000
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
0-33000002
N. MarteN. MarteRF
0-22000001
Team5-3232454329
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
6.0222140
Z. MaxwellZ. MaxwellUN
1.0100010
C. PhillipsC. PhillipsRP
1.0000120
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000010
Team9.0322280
SD

SD

79-66

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
0-33000010
SPRINT28.483
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT26.735
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-44000000
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-33100010
SPRINT2872
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-44121002
SPRINT28.688
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
0-11000000
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-22001000
SPRINT28.891
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
0-22000001
L. ArraezL. Arraez2B
0-11000001
W. WagnerW. Wagner3B
0-11000001
Team3-2929232028
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KingM. King★SP
5.0322122
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.1100030
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.2000000
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000030
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0122111
Team9.0544293

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

3

4

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Sep 9CINCIN3@SDSD4
Sep 10CINCIN4@SDSD2today
Sep 11CINCIN2@SDSD1

Season series

CIN leads series 3-2

Jun 27SDSD1@CINCIN8
Jun 28SDSD6@CINCIN4
Jun 29SDSD2@CINCIN3
Sep 9CINCIN3@SDSD4
Sep 10CINCIN4@SDSD2today
Sep 11CINCIN2@SDSD1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 51pp · Top 9th Inning

CINCIN
W. Benson

W. Benson

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

SDSD
J. Merrill

J. Merrill

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. King

M. King

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat SD 4-2. Stephenson's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (51pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SD vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 63% WP

Benson · homered to (409 feet).

SDBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+24pp→ 59% WP

Merrill · tripled to right, Laureano scored.

CINTop 9th Inning · 4-2
+51pp→ 91% WP

Stephenson · homered to left (357 feet), Lux scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN1100000024
SD0000200002

Period scoring

CIN won 3 · SD won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Stewart 1

1
0

Inn 2

Benson 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Merrill 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Stephenson 2

CIN
SD

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·SD 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  3. B9

    Merrill struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  8. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  9. B9

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  10. B9

    Laureano grounded out to second.

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

    −3pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  15. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  16. B9

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  17. B9

    Sheets flied out to center.

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

    −5pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  21. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  22. B9

    Pagán relieved Phillips

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·SD 2

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CIN 4·SD 2

  25. T9

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  26. T9

    Marte struck out looking.

    · ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 4·SD 2

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

SD

Home

4

Runs

2

5

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

14

TB

6

3

HR

0

2

BB

2

9

K

8

5

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872
  • Will BensonCIN · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    57.3%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    57.7%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.0%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.