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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8HOU
HOU

HOU

80-68

11
3
ATL

ATL

65-82

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
34,030 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 11 · ATL 3 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU00226100011
ATL0000010203

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 11–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Zach Cole

Zach Cole

LF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Eli White

Eli White

CF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU80-68
11
3
ATL65-82
HOU80-68·ATL65-82
HOU

HOU

80-68

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-55110002
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000001
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-44221100
SPRINT27.867
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33100022
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
1-44110001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
3-55232001
SPRINT25.920
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
2-33222010
SPRINT27.867
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
3-44234101
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44012000
SPRINT26.428
C. SmithC. SmithRF
0-11000001
R. UriasR. Urias3B
0-11000000
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
0-11000000
Team13-3939111311239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. MurrayJ. Murray★RP
3.0100010
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0100000
N. HernandezN. HernandezRP
1.0000110
CC. GordonSP
4.0333132
Team9.0533252
ATL

ATL

65-82

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44110001
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-33000000
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-44000000
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
0-44000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-33000010
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-33000002
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-22010011
SPRINT25.614
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-33000000
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
1-11112100
SPRINT30.499+
V. BrujanV. BrujanSS
0-11000001
Team5-3232353225
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. WaldrepH. Waldrep★SP
4.2888241
D. DunningD. DunningRP
2.1532021
A. DiazA. DiazRP
1.0000010
C. SeaboldC. SeaboldRP
1.0000120
Team9.0131110392

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • C. Gordon
    60 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      52%·91.1 mph·6% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·75.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·82.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      2%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Murray
    40 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.1 mph·10% whiff
    • SI
      28%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·90.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      10%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Hernandez
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      57%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·82.8 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      37%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.4 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • H. Waldrep
    84 pitches·27% CSW
    • FS
      35%·86.5 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      21%·93.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dunning
    45 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      44%·91.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      7%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Seabold
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      50%·82.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      44%·93.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      6%·85.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Diaz
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      57%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      43%·94.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

5

11

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Sep 12HOUHOU11@ATLATL3today
Sep 13HOUHOU6@ATLATL2
Sep 14HOUHOU3@ATLATL8

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

Sep 12HOUHOU11@ATLATL3today
Sep 13HOUHOU6@ATLATL2
Sep 14HOUHOU3@ATLATL8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 3rd Inning

HOUHOU
Z. Cole

Z. Cole

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Gordon

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
E. White

E. White

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

H. Waldrep

H. Waldrep

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat ATL 11-3. Cole's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 67% WP

Cole · homered to right center (423 feet), Meyers scored.

HOUTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 77% WP

Meyers · singled to right, Altuve scored, Walker to third.

HOUTop 5th Inning · 6-0
+7pp→ 96% WP

Walker · singled to center, Correa scored and Sánchez scored, Caratini to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU00226100011
ATL0000010203

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

11

Runs

3

13

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

19

TB

11

2

HR

2

3

BB

2

9

K

5

13

LOB

7

Win probability

ATL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Cole 2

2
0

Inn 4

Meyers 1

6
0

Inn 5

Walker 2

1
1

Inn 6

Altuve 1

Acu 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

White 2

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
ATL

Play-by-play · 582 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  3. B9

    Bruján struck out looking.

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  12. B9

    Colton Gordon pitches to Vidal Brujan

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  13. B9

    Bruján hit for Harris II

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  14. B9

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  15. B9

    Kim flied out to right.

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  22. B9

    Colton Gordon pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  23. B9

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  24. B9

    Albies lined out to left.

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  29. B9

    Colton Gordon pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    HOU 11·ATL 3

  30. B9

    Trammell in center field.

    HOU 11·ATL 3

Player projections

ATL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    49.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.8%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 1, 25sim 97
    1111
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    1110
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    74
    9(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 93
    268
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 93
    1210
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 93
    55
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs