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FINAL+6SF
SF

SF

72-69

8
2
STL

STL

70-72

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
25,837 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 8 · STL 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF2004002008
STL0000100102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    263
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    213
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 95
    1110
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 94
    1111
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 94
    111
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 94
    219
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers

1B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF72-69
8
2
STL70-72
SF72-69·STL70-72
SF

SF

72-69

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-66120000
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44122112
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-55112101
SPRINT27.457
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
2-55020000
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-44110011
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
4-55241000
SPRINT27.148
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-55121003
SPRINT2872
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-33011011
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
3-55131001
SPRINT24.32
Team18-42428188239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SeymourC. Seymour★RP
5.0211120
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0100020
T. BeckT. BeckRP
3.0211031
Team9.0522171
STL

STL

70-72

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-44000002
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44111100
SPRINT25.513
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-33000001
J. CrooksJ. Crooks★C
1-44110001
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.354
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-44000002
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-22011000
SPRINT29.798
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-33000000
G. HampsonG. Hampson2B
0-11000001
Team5-3232252117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
4.0966132
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
2.0300110
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.0422000
C. RoycroftC. RoycroftRP
1.0200130
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
1.0000020
Team9.01888392

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

18

Hits

5

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Sep 6SFSF8@STLSTL2today
Sep 6SFSF2@STLSTL3
Sep 7SFSF3@STLSTL4

Season series

SF leads series 1-0

Sep 6SFSF8@STLSTL2today
Sep 6SFSF2@STLSTL3
Sep 7SFSF3@STLSTL4
Sep 23STLSTL6@SFSF5
Sep 24STLSTL9@SFSF8
Sep 25STLSTL3@SFSF4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

SFSF
R. Devers

R. Devers

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

C. Seymour

C. Seymour

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
I. Herrera

I. Herrera

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 9 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SF beat STL 8-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 52% WP

Adames · homered to center (401 feet).

SFTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 78% WP

Schmitt · doubled to shortstop, Lee to third.

SFTop 4th Inning · 5-0
+6pp→ 92% WP

Devers · singled to right, Bailey scored, Ramos to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF2004002008
STL0000100102

Period scoring

SF won 3 · STL won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

4
0

Inn 4

Gilbert 1

0
1

Inn 5

II 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Lee 1

0
1

Inn 8

Herrera 1

0
0

Inn 9

SF
STL

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 8·STL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  3. B9

    Walker struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  8. B9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Jordan Walker

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  9. B9

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  10. B9

    Saggese flied out to left.

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  15. B9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  16. B9

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  17. B9

    Crooks struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  23. B9

    Tristan Beck pitches to Jimmy Crooks

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SF 8·STL 2

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SF 8·STL 2

  26. T9

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  27. T9

    Ramos popped out to catcher.

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 8·STL 2

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

STL

Home

8

Runs

2

18

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

29

TB

8

2

HR

1

3

BB

1

9

K

7

19

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.2± 1.6low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.0%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    50.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.