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Live · 9
  • MLBTop 4
    SD 0@WSH 0
    -3.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    LAA 1@TB 1
    -18.5pphigh
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 1@CIN 1
    +16.6pphigh
  • MLBBot 1
    MIL 0@HOU 0
    +5.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    BOS 1@CLE 2
    +9.3ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    MIA 0@NYM 1
    +30.1ppmedium
  • MLBTop 1
    DET 1@CHW 0
    -26.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    MIN 0@PIT 2
    +31.6ppmedium
  • MLBMid 7
    TOR 1@BAL 9
    +48.0pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PHI
PHI

PHI

81-59

2
0
MIL

MIL

86-55

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
26,583 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 2 · MIL 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000001012
MIL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 91
    223
    8(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 89
    2210
    8(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 88
    23
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 88
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 3, 25sim 88
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 12, 25sim 87
    161
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Sep 4·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into Milwaukee Brewers and beat them, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Max Kepler

Max Kepler

LF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Andrew Vaughn

Andrew Vaughn

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI81-59
2
0
MIL86-55
PHI81-59·MIL86-55
PHI

PHI

81-59

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000010
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000011
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44010002
SPRINT28.381
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-33000012
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44110003
SPRINT27.662
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
1-33010011
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.632
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT28.688
Team6-33332620413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
6.0600240
D. RobertsonD. RobertsonRP
1.0000010
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0100010
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000010
Team9.0700270
MIL

MIL

86-55

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-33000011
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.867
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-33010011
SPRINT24.96
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
3-44030000
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT28.175
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-44000000
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-44000000
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-33000002
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-22000001
S. FrelickS. FrelickRF
0-11000001
B. TurangB. Turang2B
0-11000000
Team7-3333070027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. PeraltaF. Peralta★SP
5.0200380
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.0000110
T. MyersT. MyersRP
0.2211010
R. ZastryznyR. ZastryznyRP
1.1000020
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
1.0211010
Team9.06224130

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    89 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      26%·74.1 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      26%·86.7 mph·15% whiff
    • SI
      21%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      53%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      47%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Duran
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FS
      56%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·101.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      19%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Robertson
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • FC
      53%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      27%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·92.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.9 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • F. Peralta
    92 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      26%·88.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CS
      22%·75.5 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      2%·80.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Myers
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      40%·83.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      5%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Zastryzny
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FC
      44%·86.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      28%·92.2 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Payamps
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      56%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      28%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      79%·97.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      7%·90.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      7%·83.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

2

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 1PHIPHI10@MILMIL8
Sep 3PHIPHI3@MILMIL6
Sep 4PHIPHI2@MILMIL0today

Season series

MIL wins series 4-2

May 30MILMIL6@PHIPHI2
May 31MILMIL17@PHIPHI7
Jun 1MILMIL5@PHIPHI2
Sep 1PHIPHI10@MILMIL8
Sep 3PHIPHI3@MILMIL6
Sep 4PHIPHI2@MILMIL0today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 9th Inning

PHIPHI
M. Kepler

M. Kepler

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

MILMIL
A. Vaughn

A. Vaughn

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat MIL 2-0. Bader's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIL vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 7th Inning · 1-0
+18pp→ 59% WP

Turner · singled to left, Bohm scored.

PHITop 9th Inning · 1-0
+18pp→ 86% WP

Bader · doubled to left.

PHITop 9th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 92% WP

Stott · doubled to right, Bader scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000001012
MIL0000000000

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · MIL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Stott 1

PHI
MIL

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  3. B9

    Frelick struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

    −0.8pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  12. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  13. B9

    Frelick hit for Perkins

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  14. B9

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  15. B9

    Monasterio flied out to center.

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

    −3pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  21. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Andruw Monasterio

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  22. B9

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  23. B9

    Jansen grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

    −4pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  27. B9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Danny Jansen

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  28. B9

    Duran relieved Strahm

    ·

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 2·MIL 0

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 2·MIL 0

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

2

Runs

0

6

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

11

TB

9

0

HR

0

4

BB

2

13

K

7

16

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

MIL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    59.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.9%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.