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FINAL+4NYY
BOS

BOS

89-73

0
4
NYY

NYY

94-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
48,833 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BOS 0 · NYY 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000000000
NYY000400004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 30, 25sim 99
    23
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 97
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 96
    81
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 95
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 95
    221
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 12, 25sim 94
    161
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Oct 2·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Boston Red Sox, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
BOS89-73
0
4
NYY94-68
BOS89-73·NYY94-68
BOS

BOS

89-73

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000002
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.969
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-33000011
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT26.123
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-44000003
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33000001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-33000002
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-33010002
Team5-32320500113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
3.2643160
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.1000010
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0100010
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.0000000
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0100030
Team8.08431110
NYY

NYY

94-68

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44010001
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000000
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT23.81
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-33000002
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
1-33111001
SPRINT28.278
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44120002
SPRINT28.175
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44011003
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33001001
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt1B
1-11010000
R. McMahonR. McMahon3B
0-11000001
Team8-33334830111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
8.05000120
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0000110
Team9.05001130

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

0

Runs

4

2

Errors

1

Playoff series

NYY win series 2-1

Sep 30BOSBOS3@NYYNYY1
Oct 1BOSBOS3@NYYNYY4
Oct 3BOSBOS0@NYYNYY4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 4th Inning

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
P. Goldschmidt

P. Goldschmidt

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 12 K · 0 ER · 5 H

How it ended

NYY beat BOS 4-0.

Win probability

NYY vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 71% WP

Stanton · doubled to left.

NYYBottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 71% WP

Bellinger · doubled to right.

NYYBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 77% WP

Rosario · singled to left, Bellinger scored, Stanton to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000000000
NYY00040000—4

Period scoring

BOS won 0 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
4

Inn 4

Wells 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
NYY

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  2. T9

    Lowe fouled out to third.

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  5. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Nathaniel Lowe

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  7. T9

    Rafaela struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

    +0.9pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  12. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  13. T9

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  14. T9

    Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bregman out at second.

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

    +2pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  17. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Masataka Yoshida

    · ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  18. T9

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  19. T9

    Bregman walked.

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

    −2pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  26. T9

    David Bednar pitches to Alex Bregman

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  27. T9

    Bednar relieved Schlittler

    ·

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  28. T9

    Goldschmidt at first base.

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 0·NYY 4

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 0·NYY 4

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

0

Runs

4

5

Hits

8

2

Errors

1

5

TB

10

0

HR

0

1

BB

1

13

K

11

14

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.4%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.5%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.