MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

PHI

80-58

108

MIL

85-54

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin

42,153 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.1%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
60.3%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.3%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
8.8± 2.6low
Cristopher SanchezPHI
8.1± 3.4low
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.3± 5.5low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.5± 1.2high
Andrew VaughnMIL
1.4± 1.4high
Christian YelichMIL
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Jackson ChourioMIL
2.9± 2.7high
Brice TurangMIL
2.2± 2.5high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.2high

RBIs

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Jake BauersMIL
1.0± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Andrew PainterPHI
3.4± 3.1low
Robert GasserMIL
3.3± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

MIL

.681

OPS

.715

▶

.730

.296

OBP

.319

▶

.340

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.34

4.04

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.42

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 10 · MIL 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	2	10
MIL	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. TurnerSS	.301	5	0	2	2	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.245	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. Harper1B	.269	5	1	2	1	1	0	2
J.T. RealmutoC	.264	3	2	0	0	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.275	5	2	4	1	0	0	0
H. BaderCF	.313	5	2	3	3	0	0	1
M. KeplerLF	.213	2	1	0	1	0	2	1
E. Sosa2B	.271	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.248	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
G. StubbsC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	10	14	10	1	4	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.301

.245

.269

.264

.275

.313

.213

.271

.248

.000

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. WalkerSP	4.0	7	5	5	2	2	85
T. MayzaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
D. RobertRP	0.2	0	1	0	1	0	16
J. AlvaradoRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	21
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
D. RobertsonRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	31
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	10	8	7	7	7	194

Player

4.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

194

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. Turang2B	.289	3	1	2	1	1	2	1
J. ChourioLF	.282	3	1	0	1	0	1	0
W. ContrerasC	.260	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
C. YelichDH	.268	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. Bauers1B	.184	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. PerkinsCF	.214	4	0	1	2	0	1	1
S. FrelickRF	.298	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.257	4	2	1	1	1	1	0
J. OrtizSS	.232	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Vaughn1B	.285	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. CollinsLF	.276	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	10	7	2	7	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. MisiorowskiSP	4.1	6	3	3	1	4	73
A. AshbyRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
N. MearsRP	1.0	2	3	3	0	0	18
J. KoenigRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
S. MillerRP	0.0	2	2	2	0	0	8
R. ZastryznyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	13
A. UribeRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	25
Team	9.0	14	10	10	4	8	162

Team

PHI

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.