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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3MIL
PHI

PHI

80-59

3
6
MIL

MIL

86-54

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
28,528 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

PHI 3 · MIL 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI0000102003
MIL500100006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 4, 25sim 91
    222
    8(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 90
    163
    8(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 7, 25sim 89
    163
    8(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 18, 25sim 89
    81
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 89
    228
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 21, 25sim 89
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Philadelphia Phillies, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Weston Wilson

Weston Wilson

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Brice Turang

Brice Turang

2B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI80-59
3
6
MIL86-54
PHI80-59·MIL86-54
PHI

PHI

80-59

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-44021011
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33000022
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000011
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44020002
SPRINT28.381
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000001
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.662
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
2-44220000
SPRINT27.148
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-44010001
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-33112101
Team9-3333393149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. NolaA. Nola★SP
5.0666261
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0000100
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000020
L. TrivinoL. TrivinoRP
1.0000100
Team8.0666481
MIL

MIL

86-54

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-33121010
SPRINT28.586
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-33100002
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-33110012
SPRINT24.96
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33111010
SPRINT28.790
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-44113102
SPRINT27.867
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-44000001
J. BauersJ. Bauers★1B
1-22110011
SPRINT2744
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
0-33000000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000000
Team6-2828665148
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
6.1733361
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
0.2100110
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100010
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0000010
Team9.0933491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • A. Nola
    95 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      42%·91.7 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      31%·78.6 mph·32% whiff
    • SI
      16%·90.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      2%·84.3 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • ST
      53%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      37%·95.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      72%·94.1 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      28%·81.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Trivino
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·92.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.4 mph·— whiff

MIL

  • J. Quintana
    97 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      42%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.5 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.4 mph·9% whiff
    • SV
      11%·79.0 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      7%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      50%·98.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      59%·97.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·90.7 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      69%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      15%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·91.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

3

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Sep 1PHIPHI10@MILMIL8
Sep 3PHIPHI3@MILMIL6today
Sep 4PHIPHI2@MILMIL0

Season series

MIL leads series 4-1

May 30MILMIL6@PHIPHI2
May 31MILMIL17@PHIPHI7
Jun 1MILMIL5@PHIPHI2
Sep 1PHIPHI10@MILMIL8
Sep 3PHIPHI3@MILMIL6today
Sep 4PHIPHI2@MILMIL0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 7pp · Bottom 1st Inning

PHIPHI
W. Wilson

W. Wilson

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

A. Nola

A. Nola

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

MILMIL
B. Turang

B. Turang

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

J. Quintana

J. Quintana

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIL beat PHI 6-3.

Win probability

MIL vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILBottom 1st Inning · 0-5
+7pp→ 95% WP

Collins · homered to right (358 feet), Contreras scored and Frelick scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI0000102003
MIL50010000—6

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · MIL won 2

0
5

Inn 1

Collins 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Turang 1

1
0

Inn 5

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Wilson 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

PHI
MIL

Play-by-play · 545 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  2. T9

    Schwarber grounded out to second.

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  5. T9

    Wilson to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  6. T9

    Wilson to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  8. T9

    Jared Koenig pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  9. T9

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  10. T9

    Turner struck out swinging.

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

    +3pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  16. T9

    Jared Koenig pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  17. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  18. T9

    Wilson hit by pitch.

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

    −2pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  21. T9

    Jared Koenig pitches to Weston Wilson

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  22. T9

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  23. T9

    Sosa flied out to center.

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

    +2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  27. T9

    Jared Koenig pitches to Edmundo Sosa

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  28. T9

    Koenig relieved Uribe

    ·

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  29. T9

    Durbin at third base.

    PHI 3·MIL 6

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    PHI 3·MIL 6

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

3

Runs

6

9

Hits

6

1

Errors

1

12

TB

12

1

HR

1

4

BB

4

9

K

8

18

LOB

10

Player projections

MIL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Garrett MitchellMIL
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.6± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.7%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    58.9%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.3%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.9%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381