• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2BOS
BOS

BOS

89-73

3
1
NYY

NYY

94-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
47,027 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 3 · NYY 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000002013
NYY0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 3, 25sim 99
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 13, 25sim 97
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 96
    81
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 1, 25sim 94
    23
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 12, 25sim 94
    161
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 9, 25sim 94
    221
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 30·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into New York Yankees and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Anthony Volpe

Anthony Volpe

SS

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS89-73
3
1
NYY94-68
BOS89-73·NYY94-68
BOS

BOS

89-73

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-22000010
T. StoryT. Story★SS
2-55120003
SPRINT27.969
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-44021011
SPRINT25.818
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
0-33000001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-11000031
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
1-33010000
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
0-33100010
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
2-44120001
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
1-22012000
SPRINT26.123
N. LoweN. LoweDH
0-22000000
W. AbreuW. AbreuRF
0-11000000
Team8-3434383068
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
7.24110111
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.1300020
Team9.07110131
NYY

NYY

94-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT24.74
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT23.81
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-33000000
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-44000004
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
2-33121101
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-33000002
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
0-33000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.2B
0-11000000
Team7-33331711013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
6.1400360
F. CruzF. CruzRP
0.2000110
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000100
D. BednarD. BednarRP
0.2211010
T. HillT. HillRP
0.1000000
Team9.0833680

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    117 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      32%·97.6 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      26%·91.0 mph·37% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.8 mph·15% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.5 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.9 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      71%·99.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·100.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      4%·92.1 mph·100% whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    102 pitches·35% CSW
    • CU
      24%·75.4 mph·80% whiff
    • FC
      22%·94.2 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      19%·87.4 mph·45% whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.3 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      2%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • L. Weaver
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • CH
      60%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      40%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      40%·77.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      33%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      21%·80.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      73%·95.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      25%·82.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Playoff series

BOS leads series 1-0

Sep 30BOSBOS3@NYYNYY1today
Oct 1BOSBOS3@NYYNYY4
Oct 3BOSBOS0@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 7th Inning

BOSBOS
A. Bregman

A. Bregman

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.100 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.2 IP · 11 K · 1 ER · 4 H

NYYNYY
A. Volpe

A. Volpe

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat NYY 3-1. Yoshida's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+22pp→ 67% WP

Yoshida · singled to center, Rafaela scored and Sogard scored.

BOSTop 9th Inning · 3-1
+13pp→ 91% WP

Bregman · doubled to left, Story scored.

BOSBottom 9th Inning · 3-1
+18pp→ 67% WP

Stanton · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000002013
NYY0100000001

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

3

Runs

1

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

11

TB

10

0

HR

1

6

BB

0

8

K

13

15

LOB

15

Win probability

NYY vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · NYY won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Volpe 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Yoshida 2

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Bregman 1

BOS
NYY

Play-by-play · 574 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  3. B9

    Grisham struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

    −17pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  9. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Trent Grisham

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  11. B9

    Chisholm Jr. flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

    −16pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  16. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  17. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  18. B9

    Stanton struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

    −18pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  23. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  24. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  25. B9

    Bellinger singled to center, Judge to second, Goldschmidt to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

    +15pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  27. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Cody Bellinger

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  28. B9

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

  29. B9

    Judge singled to center, Goldschmidt to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

    +15pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 3·NYY 1

Player projections

NYY vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.8± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.1± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.3± 2.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.01 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175