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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2MIL
CHC

CHC

92-70

1
3
MIL

MIL

97-65

American Family Field · Milwaukee, Wisconsin
42,743 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

CHC 1 · MIL 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC0100000001
MIL100100103

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 13, 25sim 97
    123
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    193
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 3, 25sim 94
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 94
    23
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 21, 25sim 93
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 93
    104
    2(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Oct 11·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 5-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers held off Chicago Cubs, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIL · top performer

MIL
Caleb Durbin

Caleb Durbin

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
CHC92-70
1
3
MIL97-65
CHC92-70·MIL97-65
CHC

CHC

92-70

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000002
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44111100
SPRINT27.457
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000002
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
1-44010001
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33000001
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33000002
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-22000000
M. BallesterosM. BallesterosDH
0-11000000
Team4-3131141118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PomeranzD. Pomeranz★RP
1.0111011
C. ReaC. ReaSP
2.2411121
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.1000100
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
0.2000110
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.1111101
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000000
Team8.0633443
MIL

MIL

97-65

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ChourioJ. Chourio★LF
0-33000011
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44111101
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-44111100
SPRINT24.96
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
0-44000001
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-44111100
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT28.790
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
2-22020010
SPRINT28.175
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-22000010
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
0-33000000
Team6-2929363344
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MegillT. Megill★RP
1.0000010
J. MisiorowskiJ. MisiorowskiSP
4.0311031
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
0.1100010
C. PatrickC. PatrickRP
1.2000030
A. UribeA. UribeRP
2.0000100
Team9.0411181

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

6

1

Runs

3

2

Errors

0

Playoff series

MIL wins series 3-2

Oct 4CHCCHC3@MILMIL9
Oct 7CHCCHC3@MILMIL7
Oct 8MILMIL3@CHCCHC4
Oct 10MILMIL0@CHCCHC6
Oct 12CHCCHC1@MILMIL3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CHCCHC
S. Suzuki

S. Suzuki

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

MILMIL
C. Durbin

C. Durbin

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

J. Misiorowski

J. Misiorowski

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H

How it ended

MIL beat CHC 3-1.

Win probability

MIL vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 37% WP

Suzuki · homered to right center (390 feet).

MILBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 74% WP

Vaughn · homered to left (383 feet).

CHCTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+12pp→ 35% WP

Busch · singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC0100000001
MIL10010010—3

Period scoring

CHC won 1 · MIL won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Contreras 1

1
0

Inn 2

Suzuki 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Vaughn 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Turang 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CHC
MIL

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  2. T9

    Kelly grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  4. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Carson Kelly

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  5. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  6. T9

    Happ lined out to right.

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

    +2pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  11. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Ian Happ

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  12. T9

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  13. T9

    Suzuki flied out to left.

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

    +3pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  18. T9

    Abner Uribe pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  21. B8

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  22. B8

    Frelick lined out to center.

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  23. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  24. B8

    Brad Keller pitches to Sal Frelick

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  25. B8

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  26. B8

    Vaughn grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

    −0.5pp

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

  30. B8

    Brad Keller pitches to Andrew Vaughn

    ·

    CHC 1·MIL 3

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

1

Runs

3

4

Hits

6

2

Errors

0

7

TB

15

1

HR

3

1

BB

4

8

K

4

11

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

MIL vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.2± 0.5high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Ian HappCHC
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.8± 2.3high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.6%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    57.0%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.1%

    P(MIL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.3%

    P(MIL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.