• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2SEA
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
1
TOR

TOR

94-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
44,474 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 3 · TOR 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000020103
TOR1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Oct 12·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cal Raleigh

Cal Raleigh

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
George Springer

George Springer

DH

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA90-72
3
1
TOR94-68
SEA90-72·TOR94-68
SEA

SEA

90-72

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44100012
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-44121102
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-22110021
SPRINT28.688
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-44022000
SPRINT25.310
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-44000002
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT25.818
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-44000001
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
1-44010002
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000000
Team7-34343731311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. MillerB. Miller★SP
6.0211331
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.0000000
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000000
Team9.0211341
TOR

TOR

94-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT25.920
N. LukesN. Lukes★RF
0-11000010
SPRINT27.148
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-44000000
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-22000020
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
0-33000001
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
0-33000000
A. SantanderA. Santander★RF
1-33010001
A. GimenezA. Gimenez★SS
0-33000000
M. StrawM. StrawRF
0-11000000
SPRINT29.597
D. SchneiderD. SchneiderLF
0-11000000
SPRINT26.838
Team2-2929121134
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. GausmanK. Gausman★SP
5.2322151
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.1100010
L. VarlandL. VarlandRP
1.0100010
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
0.1111210
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
0.2000020
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0100010
Team9.07333111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

TOR

  • L. Varland
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.4 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      31%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      6%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      53%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      47%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

2

3

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Playoff series

SEA leads series 1-0

Oct 13SEASEA3@TORTOR1today
Oct 13SEASEA10@TORTOR3
Oct 16TORTOR13@SEASEA4
Oct 17TORTOR8@SEASEA2
Oct 17TORTOR2@SEASEA6
Oct 20SEASEA2@TORTOR6
Oct 21SEASEA3@TORTOR4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 6th Inning

SEASEA
C. Raleigh

C. Raleigh

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Miller

B. Miller

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

TORTOR
G. Springer

G. Springer

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

K. Gausman

K. Gausman

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SEA beat TOR 3-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TORBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 77% WP

Springer · homered to right (385 feet).

SEATop 6th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 57% WP

Polanco · singled to left, Rodríguez scored.

SEATop 8th Inning · 3-1
+8pp→ 87% WP

Polanco · singled to right, Arozarena scored, Rodríguez to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000020103
TOR1000000001

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · TOR won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Springer 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Raleigh 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Polanco 1

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
TOR

Play-by-play · 511 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Kirk flied out to left.

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  8. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  9. B9

    Barger flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

    −5pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  11. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Addison Barger

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  12. B9

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  13. B9

    Guerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

    −4pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Muñoz relieved Brash

    ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  22. T9

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  23. T9

    Arozarena struck out looking.

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  27. T9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Randy Arozarena

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  28. T9

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

  29. T9

    Crawford grounded out to second, Robles to second.

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

    +0.5pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 3·TOR 1

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

3

Runs

1

7

Hits

2

1

Errors

0

11

TB

5

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

11

K

4

15

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Myles StrawTOR · RF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 3, 25sim 97
    20
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 97
    23
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 12, 25sim 97
    161
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 21, 25sim 96
    123
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Oct 16, 25sim 95
    81
    19(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 94
    193
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TOR vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.6± 2.2low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.6± 2.4high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Luke RaleySEA
    1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    2.4± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.9%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.