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Live · 9
  • MLBMid 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +34.9ppmedium
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    KC 4@TEX 3
    -50.7ppmedium
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    SD 4@WSH 7
    +51.1pplow
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    TOR 4@BAL 1
    -48.8pplow
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    LAA 7@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
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    MIA 1@NYM 5
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
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FINAL+5TB
SEA

SEA

73-67

4
9
TB

TB

70-69

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
8,589 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

SEA 4 · TB 9 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000040004
TB440010009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    139
    11(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 96
    72
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    284
    5(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    125
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 95
    1810
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 93
    122
    30(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Seattle Mariners, 9–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez

CF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

2.000OPS

5-5

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA73-67
4
9
TB70-69
SEA73-67·TB70-69
SEA

SEA

73-67

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000002
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44111002
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-44113100
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
0-11000001
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
0-44000002
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33010000
SPRINT25.310
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-22110000
SPRINT25.920
M. GarverM. Garver★C
0-33000001
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-22100010
SPRINT25.513
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-22000001
Team4-2929444129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
2.01087010
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0200020
E. HancockE. HancockSP
2.0411100
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
3.0300040
Team8.01998170
TB

TB

70-69

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
3-55130000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
5-55150000
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-33112002
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-55222001
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-44221001
SPRINT27.251
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
3-55031000
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
2-44023001
SPRINT27.354
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000001
BB. Seymour★1B
1-33210011
Team19-38389199017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
7.0444181
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
2.0000110
Team9.0444291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • G. Kirby
    54 pitches·26% CSW
    • ST
      50%·88.0 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      20%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.3 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      9%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Saucedo
    38 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      53%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      16%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·90.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Hancock
    33 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      55%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·87.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      12%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    23 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      52%·82.7 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      43%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.3 mph·100% whiff

TB

  • A. Houser
    87 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.1 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.5 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.9 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Englert
    31 pitches·6% CSW
    • CH
      32%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·94.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·75.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

19

4

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Sep 1SEASEA2@TBTB10
Sep 2SEASEA5@TBTB6
Sep 3SEASEA4@TBTB9today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Aug 9TBTB2@SEASEA3
Aug 10TBTB4@SEASEA7
Aug 10TBTB3@SEASEA6
Sep 1SEASEA2@TBTB10
Sep 2SEASEA5@TBTB6
Sep 3SEASEA4@TBTB9today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SEASEA
J. Rodriguez

J. Rodriguez

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

T. Saucedo

T. Saucedo

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

5-for-5 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat SEA 9-4.

Win probability

TB vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 78% WP

J. Lowe · singled to right, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000040004
TB44001000—9

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · TB won 3

0
4

Inn 1

Caminero 1

0
4

Inn 2

Feduccia 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Lowe 1

4
0

Inn 6

Rodr 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SEA
TB

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  2. T9

    Suárez grounded into double play, third to second to first, Rivas out at second.

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  8. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Eugenio Suarez

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  9. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  10. T9

    Rivas walked.

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  17. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Leo Rivas

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  18. T9

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  19. T9

    Rodríguez fouled out to first.

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  25. T9

    Mason Englert pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SEA 4·TB 9

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SEA 4·TB 9

  28. B8

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  29. B8

    Feduccia struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 4·TB 9

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TB

Home

4

Runs

9

4

Hits

19

0

Errors

0

7

TB

21

1

HR

0

2

BB

1

9

K

7

5

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

TB vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    52.2%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.