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Live · 4
  • MLBBot 1
    ATL 0@CIN 0
    +5.9ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 1
    CHC 0@STL 0
    -5.9ppmedium
  • MLBBot 9
    LAA 14@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • WNBA8:09 - 3rd
    LA 41@CON 43
    +21.5pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8TB
SEA

SEA

73-65

2
10
TB

TB

68-69

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

SEA 2 · TB 10 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000000022
TB0320003210

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 66-47
61%Last 30 · 329-206
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 2, 25sim 97
    137
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 97
    1910
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    139
    11(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    125
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 8, 25sim 95
    72
    5(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off Seattle Mariners, 10–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Leo Rivas

Leo Rivas

3B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Nick Fortes

Nick Fortes

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

3

R

3

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA73-65
2
10
TB68-69
SEA73-65·TB68-69
SEA

SEA

73-65

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44020002
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
2-44020000
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010000
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
2-44120001
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-33000002
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-11000011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33000011
L. RivasL. Rivas3B
1-11112100
SPRINT27.560
M. GarverM. GarverC
0-11000001
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000000
Team10-343421021210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
4.0655151
C. VargasC. VargasRP
2.0200010
E. HancockE. HancockSP
1.0331020
T. SaucedoT. SaucedoRP
1.0222001
Team8.013108182
TB

TB

68-69

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-55110000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44222000
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44111002
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
3-44032000
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000003
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
3-44130000
SPRINT2993
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-33100011
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
2-44323101
SPRINT26.225
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-44112101
SPRINT26.428
Team13-3636101310218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
6.0500260
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0100030
BB. Van BelleRP
2.0422011
Team9.010222101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Castillo
    78 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      33%·94.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·83.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      4%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Vargas
    32 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      88%·96.9 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      9%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      3%·97.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Saucedo
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      62%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. Hancock
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      38%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.5 mph·50% whiff

TB

  • S. Baz
    83 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      29%·98.1 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      29%·86.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      27%·93.0 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      16%·89.4 mph·17% whiff
  • B. Van Belle
    31 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      55%·84.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      26%·91.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    16 pitches·56% CSW
    • SL
      38%·87.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      25%·80.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

13

2

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Sep 1SEASEA2@TBTB10today
Sep 2SEASEA5@TBTB6
Sep 3SEASEA4@TBTB9

Season series

SEA leads series 3-1

Aug 9TBTB2@SEASEA3
Aug 10TBTB4@SEASEA7
Aug 10TBTB3@SEASEA6
Sep 1SEASEA2@TBTB10today
Sep 2SEASEA5@TBTB6
Sep 3SEASEA4@TBTB9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 29pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

SEASEA
L. Rivas

L. Rivas

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

TBTB
N. Fortes

N. Fortes

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat SEA 10-2. Fortes's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Win probability

TB vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+29pp→ 78% WP

Fortes · homered to right center (364 feet), Mangum scored and Palacios scored.

TBBottom 3rd Inning · 0-4
+7pp→ 90% WP

B. Lowe · doubled to center, Díaz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000000022
TB03200032—10

Period scoring

SEA won 0 · TB won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Fortes 3

0
2

Inn 3

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Caminero 1

0
2

Inn 8

Gray 2

2

Inn 9

Rivas 2

SEA
TB

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  2. T9

    Young grounded out to second.

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  5. T9

    Crawford to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  6. T9

    Crawford to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  11. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  12. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  13. T9

    Crawford singled to right.

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  19. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to J.P. Crawford

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  20. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  21. T9

    Raley flied out to center.

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  24. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to Luke Raley

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  25. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  26. T9

    Rivas homered to right center (385 feet), Suárez scored.

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 0·TB 10

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 0·TB 10

  30. T9

    Brian Van Belle pitches to Leo Rivas

    · ·

    SEA 2·TB 10

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

TB

Home

2

Runs

10

10

Hits

13

1

Errors

0

15

TB

23

1

HR

2

2

BB

1

10

K

8

17

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

TB vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Bryan WooSEA
    5.1± 4.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    49.5%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.9%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.