MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6TEX

TEX

70-67

ATH

63-74

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,941 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
51.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.5%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.1%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.3± 1.0high
Zack GelofATH
1.3± 0.7high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.1± 1.1medium

Total bases

Nick KurtzATH
3.0± 3.3high
Zack GelofATH
2.5± 2.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.2± 3.0high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
1.2± 1.6high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Zack GelofATH
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Luis MoralesATH
5.0± 0.3low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

ATH

.696

OPS

.717

▶

.751

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.331

3.96

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.60

3.85

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.81

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.44

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 9 · ATH 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	3	1	0	1	0	2	0	2	9
ATH	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Smith2B	.254	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. LangfordLF	.252	5	2	2	1	1	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.172	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.236	5	2	3	0	0	0	0
R. Tellez1B	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Jung3B	.257	5	2	3	2	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.253	5	1	2	2	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.221	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. HelmanCF	.286	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
D. MooreCF	.500	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
Team		44	9	17	9	2	0	3

Player

.254

.252

.172

.236

.278

.257

.253

.221

.286

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	6.1	6	3	3	0	2	79
J. WebbRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
R. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	8	3	3	1	6	126

Player

6.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ButlerRF	.229	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
S. LangeliersC	.261	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RookerDH	.273	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.270	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. WilsonSS	.310	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.206	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
C. CortesRF	.309	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
D. HernaizSS	.242	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. Gelof3B	.116	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. ThomasRF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Harris3B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	8	3	2	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarnettSP	4.0	8	5	5	0	1	66
H. HarrisRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
T. FergusonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	21
S. NewcombRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	21
O. BidoRP	2.1	3	2	2	0	1	32
Team	9.0	17	9	9	0	3	158

Team

TEX

ATH

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.