MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TB

SEA

73-66

69-69

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

7,883 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.3%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.6%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.21 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
5.7± 2.4low
Emerson HancockSEA
5.5± 4.3low
Bryan WooSEA
5.1± 4.1low

Hits

Julio RodriguezSEA
1.3± 0.8high
Yandy DiazTB
1.3± 1.2high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.7± 2.8high
Julio RodriguezSEA
2.5± 2.2high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Yandy DiazTB
0.9± 1.5high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 0.8high
Julio RodriguezSEA
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Luis CastilloSEA
3.2± 3.1low
George KirbySEA
2.6± 2.0low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

SEA 5 · TB 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	1	5
TB	2	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
R. Arozarena★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Raleigh★C	1-5	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT25.716
J. Rodriguez★CF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
SPRINT28.688
J. Naylor★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Suarez★DH	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.818
J. Polanco★1B	2-2	2	2	2	1	1	2	0
SPRINT25.310
D. Canzone★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.P. Crawford★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.513
C. Young★2B	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. RaleyRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0

Team	6-30	30	5	6	5	3	5	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

1-5

1-4

0-4

1-4

2-2

0-1

1-3

0-2

0-1

Team

6-30

	Pitching
B. Woo★SP	5.0	4	3	3	3	3	1
E. BazardoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. SpeierRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	2	0
C. VargasRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. JacksonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0

Team	8.0	7	6	6	5	8	1

Pitching

Player

5.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
C. Simpson★LF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT29.496
Y. Diaz★DH	1-2	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
SPRINT25.716
B. Lowe★2B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.148
J. Caminero★3B	3-4	4	1	3	4	1	0	0
SPRINT25.716
J. Lowe★LF	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.251
J. Mangum★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Palacios★2B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Williams★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Feduccia★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Morel1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Gray3B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
Team	7-29	29	6	7	6	1	5	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI