MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3HOU

HOU

71-58

107

BAL

59-69

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

24,224 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.6%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.9%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.3± 3.2low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.1low

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.2± 1.1high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.0high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
1.1± 1.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.5high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.7± 2.4low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
Shane BazBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

BAL

.731

OPS

.715

.727

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.56

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.90

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.54

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 10 · BAL 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	3	0	10
BAL	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	1	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.307	5	1	2	4	1	0	0
C. CorreaSS	.333	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
J. Altuve2B	.275	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.234	5	1	1	3	1	0	3
Y. DiazC	.254	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
R. Urias3B	.318	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
M. DubonSS	.255	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. SmithRF	.244	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. McCormickLF	.220	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. SanchezRF	.212	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.262	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. MeltonLF	.161	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	10	10	9	2	4	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.307

.333

.275

.234

.254

.318

.255

.244

.220

.212

.262

.161

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. McCullers Jr.SP	4.0	5	3	3	5	4	87
S. DubinRP	1.2	3	2	2	0	0	28
S. OkertRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	19
K. OrtRP	0.2	4	1	1	0	0	16
B. AbreuRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	21
Team	9.0	13	7	7	6	11	174

Player

4.0

1.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

1.1

Team

9.0

174

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. Holliday2B	.248	3	0	1	1	0	2	0
J. Jackson2B	.327	5	0	2	3	0	0	0
G. HendersonSS	.281	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.256	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. CowserRF	.211	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
C. Mayo3B	.201	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
D. BeaversRF	.300	3	2	1	0	0	2	2
L. VazquezSS	.138	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.235	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. MachinSS	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
Team		38	7	13	7	2	6	11

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. PovichSP	4.2	4	6	4	2	5	96
Y. CanoRP	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	12
K. StrowdRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
M. BowmanRP	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	16
C. MartinRP	1.2	3	1	1	0	2	20
Team	9.0	10	10	8	4	9	156

Team

HOU

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.