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Live · 9
  • MLBTop 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +34.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    KC 4@TEX 3
    -50.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 7
    BOS 2@CLE 1
    -47.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 8
    TOR 4@BAL 1
    -48.8pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    MIA 1@NYM 4
    +49.6pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@WSH 7
    +51.1pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    LAA 7@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
  • WNBA2:53 - 1st
    LA 16@CON 17
    +10.0ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5HOU
LAA

LAA

64-73

3
8
HOU

HOU

76-62

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
33,247 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

LAA 3 · HOU 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0003000003
HOU011111038

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 1·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Los Angeles Angels, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Logan O'Hoppe

Logan O'Hoppe

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA64-73
3
8
HOU76-62
LAA64-73·HOU76-62
LAA

LAA

64-73

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44111100
SPRINT27.148
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
0-44000003
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.688
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44122100
SPRINT27.867
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT27.148
T. d'ArnaudT. d'Arnaud★C
1-44010001
SPRINT257
M. LugoM. Lugo★LF
0-44000002
N. KavadasN. Kavadas★1B
0-22000000
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000000
C. TaylorC. TaylorCF
0-11000000
L. O'HoppeL. O'HoppeC
1-11010000
Team7-34343732010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
5.2855261
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
0.1100200
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0000120
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0333011
Team8.01288592
HOU

HOU

76-62

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
2-44121011
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-44121011
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-44123110
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-55011002
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000011
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44110001
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
2-44122102
SPRINT26.735
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
2-44220001
SPRINT29.395
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000010
Team12-35358128259
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GarciaL. Garcia★SP
6.0333062
K. OrtK. OrtRP
1.0100020
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0100000
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0200020
Team9.07330102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • Y. Kikuchi
    97 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      44%·85.0 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      41%·94.9 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      14%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Burke
    26 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.6 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      35%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      15%·87.8 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • ST
      48%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      43%·98.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      5%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      5%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Silseth
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      27%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.9 mph·— whiff

HOU

  • L. Garcia
    79 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      48%·91.4 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      23%·82.0 mph·45% whiff
    • CU
      13%·73.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·75.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.5 mph·9% whiff
    • KC
      30%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • K. Ort
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      31%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • B. King
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      75%·91.8 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      17%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·92.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

12

3

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 4-3

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8today

Season series

HOU leads series 6-4

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8today
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 4th Inning

LAALAA
L. O'Hoppe

L. O'Hoppe

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

L. Garcia

L. Garcia

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 3 H

How it ended

HOU beat LAA 8-3. Adell's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 4th Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 39% WP

Neto · homered to left (339 feet).

LAATop 4th Inning · 3-2
+23pp→ 62% WP

Adell · homered to left (396 feet), Trout scored.

HOUBottom 5th Inning · 3-4
+14pp→ 71% WP

Correa · singled to center, Alvarez scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0003000003
HOU01111103—8

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · HOU won 5

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Altuve 1

3
1

Inn 4

Adell 2

0
1

Inn 5

Correa 1

0
1

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Altuve 2

0

Inn 9

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 575 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  2. T9

    Lugo grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  11. T9

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Matthew Lugo

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  12. T9

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  13. T9

    d'Arnaud struck out looking.

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

    +0.7pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  19. T9

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Travis d'Arnaud

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  20. T9

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  21. T9

    Rengifo singled to center, Adell to second.

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

    −0.5pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

  30. T9

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Luis Rengifo

    · ·

    LAA 3·HOU 8

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

3

Runs

8

7

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

13

TB

22

2

HR

2

0

BB

5

10

K

9

7

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.0%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    58.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.7%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.6%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    1510
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 97
    33
    13(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 97
    287
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    37
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    35
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    91
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs