MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9ATL

ATL

55-68

101

CLE

63-59

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

34,059 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.2%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.4%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.3± 2.8low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Spencer StriderATL
6.4± 2.8low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.5± 1.3high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.2high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Michael Harris IIATL
2.8± 3.1high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Michael Harris IIATL
1.0± 1.4high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.1high
Dominic SmithATL
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.7± 3.7low
Grant HolmesATL
2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 10 · CLE 1 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	3	0	2	3	2	0	0	0	10
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Profar★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
M. Olson★1B	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	3
R. Acuna Jr.★RF	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
D. Baldwin★C	1-5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
M. Ozuna★DH	2-3	3	2	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris II★CF	2-5	5	1	2	3	1	0	0
SPRINT27.148
O. Albies★2B	0-5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Alvarez Jr.★SS	3-5	5	2	3	1	0	0	0
N. Allen★SS	3-4	4	1	3	2	0	0	0
SPRINT2744

Team	14-39	39	10	14	9	1	2	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-3

1-4

2-5

1-5

2-3

2-5

0-5

3-5

3-4

Team

14-39

	Pitching
J. Wentz★RP	6.0	3	1	1	2	5	1
H. StrattonRP	3.0	3	0	0	0	3	0
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	8	1

Pitching

Player

J. Wentz★RP

6.0

H. StrattonRP

3.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	2-3	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.530
A. Martinez★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Fry★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Santana★1B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
G. Arias★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. Kayfus★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Rocchio★SS	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
SPRINT27.354
A. Hedges★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. JonesRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	6-32	32	1	6	1	1	2	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI