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  • MLBMid 1
    MIN 0@PIT 0
    -5.8ppmedium
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    SD 0@WSH 0
    -5.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    +5.6ppmedium
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    -5.9ppmedium
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    LAA 0@TB 0
    -5.7ppmedium
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    -6.0ppmedium
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    MIA 0@NYM 0
    -5.5ppmedium
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    MIL 0@HOU 0
    -4.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 8
    DET 1@CHW 4
    +36.2pplow
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FINAL+1DET
LAA

LAA

55-61

5
6
DET

DET

67-50

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
35,290 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

LAA 5 · DET 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0100300105
DET030000036

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesDET wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Los Angeles Angels, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAA · top performer

LAA
Gustavo Campero

Gustavo Campero

OF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

CF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAA55-61
5
6
DET67-50
LAA55-61·DET67-50
LAA

LAA

55-61

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44111102
SPRINT27.148
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-44000001
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44010001
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT27.867
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.148
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
1-44011001
SPRINT27.251
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
1-33110012
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-11000001
G. CamperoG. CamperoOF
1-22112101
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada3B
0-11000000
Team8-34345853210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. HendricksK. Hendricks★SP
5.0533061
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.1000000
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
0.2100010
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
0.1133211
A. ChafinA. ChafinRP
0.2000110
Team8.0766392
DET

DET

67-50

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-33000001
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33100012
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-33000002
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000010
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT2744
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-33010000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33110001
SPRINT26.941
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33012001
SPRINT27.251
M. VierlingM. VierlingCF
1-11113100
SPRINT28.483
Team7-3030676239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
4.2644262
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
3.1211021
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000020
Team9.08552103

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

  • K. Hendricks
    63 pitches·35% CSW
    • CH
      40%·79.3 mph·42% whiff
    • SI
      32%·86.3 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      22%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·72.1 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chafin
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • SI
      53%·88.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      32%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·74.1 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Burke
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      45%·83.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      36%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      18%·89.8 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • T. Skubal
    92 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      28%·87.8 mph·53% whiff
    • SI
      20%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·90.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      1%·82.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Melton
    46 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.8 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 2-1

Aug 8LAALAA5@DETDET6today
Aug 9LAALAA7@DETDET4
Aug 10LAALAA5@DETDET9

Season series

DET leads series 4-1

May 2DETDET10@LAALAA4
May 3DETDET9@LAALAA1
May 4DETDET2@LAALAA5
May 4DETDET13@LAALAA1
Aug 8LAALAA5@DETDET6today
Aug 9LAALAA7@DETDET4
Aug 10LAALAA5@DETDET9

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 47pp · Bottom 8th Inning

LAALAA
G. Campero

G. Campero

OF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

K. Hendricks

K. Hendricks

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H

DETDET
M. Vierling

M. Vierling

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

DET beat LAA 6-5. Vierling's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Win probability

DET vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAATop 5th Inning · 3-3
+17pp→ 31% WP

Campero · homered to left center (388 feet), Moore scored.

LAATop 8th Inning · 5-3
+18pp→ 79% WP

Adell · homered to right center (399 feet).

DETBottom 8th Inning · 5-6
+47pp→ 90% WP

Vierling · homered to left center (374 feet), Jones scored and Torres scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0100300105
DET03000003—6

Period scoring

LAA won 1 · DET won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
3

Inn 2

O'Hoppe 1

Torkelson 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Campero 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
3

Inn 8

Adell 1

Vierling 3

0

Inn 9

LAA
DET

Play-by-play · 539 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  2. T9

    Moncada grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  6. T9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Yoan Moncada

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  7. T9

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  8. T9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 5 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 4 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  15. T9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  16. T9

    Moncada hit for Campero

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  17. T9

    Moncada hit for Moore

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  18. T9

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  19. T9

    O'Hoppe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

    +5pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  23. T9

    Kyle Finnegan pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  24. T9

    Finnegan relieved Melton

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  25. T9

    Vierling in right field.

    LAA 5·DET 6

  26. T9

    Jones as designated hitter.

    LAA 5·DET 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 5·DET 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 5·DET 6

  29. B8

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

  30. B8

    Greene struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 5·DET 6

    −2pp

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

DET

Home

5

Runs

6

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

18

TB

14

3

HR

2

2

BB

3

10

K

9

7

LOB

6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 16, 25sim 98
    1510
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 98
    296
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    37
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 98
    91
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 98
    287
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 97
    77
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.6%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    57.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.8%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.