HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+8NYY
MIN

MIN

56-63

1
9
NYY

NYY

64-56

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
37,552 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

MIN

league avg

NYY

NYY

.718

OPS

.717

▶

.763

.318

OBP

.319

▶

.330

4.63

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

4.86

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.32

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

MIN 1 · NYY 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1000000001
NYY130010319

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 12·Final/SeriesNYY win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Minnesota Twins, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1T. AdamsMIN−19.8pp
  2. 2R. McMahonNYY+15.0pp
  3. 3A. VolpeNYY+12.6pp

MIN · top performer

MIN
Austin Martin

Austin Martin

RF

0.500OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

2.800OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinRF
.2574110000
B. BuxtonCF
.2802000010
R. JeffersC
.2671000010
L. Keaschall2B
.3544000001
R. Lewis3B
.2343001001
K. Clemens1B
.2223000001
M. GasperC
.1303000000
E. Julien2B
.1863000002
R. Fitzgerald3B
.1673000001
- A. RodenLF
.1671000001
- M. WallnerRF
.2171000001
Team28111028

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. AdamsRP
2.14444270
T. HatchRP
4.15447299
K. FunderburkRP
0.11000113
C. SandsRP
1.01110016
Team8.01199115198

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamCF
.2445010001
A. JudgeRF
.3372211131
C. BellingerLF
.2694001010
G. StantonDH
.3005143100
B. Rice1B
.2323000021
J. Chisholm Jr.2B
.2423220020
P. Goldschmidt1B
.2764110002
R. McMahon3B
.2553210020
A. VolpeSS
.2184113110
- J. CaballeroSS
.1430000000
- J.C. EscarraC
.2021001000
Team3491193115

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. RodonSP
7.01112596
T. HillRP
1.0000019
Y. De los SantosRP
1.00000211
Team9.011128116

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • T. Hatch
    99 pitches·16% CSW
    • FC
      29%·90.0 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      12%·93.7 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      12%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      9%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Adams
    70 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      29%·87.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.9 mph·— whiff
  • C. Sands
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      31%·96.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      25%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      13%·81.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Funderburk
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      38%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      15%·93.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.5 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    96 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.5 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.9 mph·27% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.5 mph·100% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Hill
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • SI
      89%·87.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      11%·88.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

11

1

Runs

9

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 2-1

Aug 11MINMIN2@NYYNYY6
Aug 12MINMIN1@NYYNYY9today
Aug 13MINMIN4@NYYNYY1

Season series

NYY lead series 2-0

Aug 11MINMIN2@NYYNYY6
Aug 12MINMIN1@NYYNYY9today
Aug 13MINMIN4@NYYNYY1
Sep 15NYYNYY0@MINMIN7
Sep 16NYYNYY10@MINMIN9
Sep 17NYYNYY10@MINMIN5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

MINMIN
A. Martin

A. Martin

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 R · 0.500 OPS

T. Hatch

T. Hatch

RP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 7 BB

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.800 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat MIN 9-1.

Win probability

NYY vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 41% WP

Jeffers · hit by pitch, Buxton to second, Martin to third.

NYYBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+8pp→ 76% WP

Judge · homered to center (425 feet).

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 1-4
+14pp→ 92% WP

Volpe · homered to right center (386 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and McMahon scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1000000001
NYY13001031—9

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · NYY won 4

1
1

Inn 1

Lewis 1

Judge 1

0
3

Inn 2

Volpe 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Stanton 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Stanton 2

0
1

Inn 8

Escarra 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
NYY

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  2. T9

    Keaschall flied out to center.

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  4. T9

    Yerry De los Santos pitches to Luke Keaschall

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  5. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  6. T9

    Wallner struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  11. T9

    Yerry De los Santos pitches to Matt Wallner

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  12. T9

    Wallner hit for Jeffers

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  13. T9

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  14. T9

    Roden struck out looking.

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  21. T9

    Yerry De los Santos pitches to Alan Roden

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  22. T9

    De los Santos relieved Hill

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  25. B8

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  26. B8

    Volpe fouled out to first.

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  27. B8

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  28. B8

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 1·NYY 9

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

1

Runs

9

1

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

1

TB

24

0

HR

3

2

BB

11

8

K

5

8

LOB

24

Player projections

NYY vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Joe RyanMIN
    6.3± 2.9medium
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.3± 3.9low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.2± 2.1medium

Hits

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.9± 2.8high
  • Kody ClemensMIN
    2.2± 2.4high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    2.2± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Josh BellMIN
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    3.5± 3.9low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    3.0± 3.1low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    57.5%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(NYY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.0%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.