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FINAL+3MIA
MIA

MIA

63-71

7
4
NYM

NYM

72-62

Citi Field · Queens, New York
37,975 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 7 · NYM 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA1030003007
NYM2000200004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Thu, Aug 28·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into New York Mets and beat them, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Maximo Acosta

Maximo Acosta

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA63-71
7
4
NYM72-62
MIA63-71·NYM72-62
MIA

MIA

63-71

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44100000
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
2-55220001
SPRINT27.765
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-55221000
SPRINT25.614
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44111001
SPRINT27.354
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-33110000
SPRINT26.326
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-55022001
SPRINT28.381
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-22001011
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-33010010
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-33000010
E. WagamanE. Wagaman1B
0-11000001
D. HillD. HillRF
0-11000000
Team9-3636795035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. MazurA. Mazur★SP
4.0422120
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.0122121
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
1.1100130
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
1.2100020
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000010
Team9.07443101
NYM

NYM

72-62

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
3-55130001
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-44100011
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
2-44222100
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44012001
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44000002
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-22000011
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.735
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
0-33000010
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-33000002
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
Team7-34344741310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
5.0542120
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000200
G. SotoG. SotoRP
0.1330010
K. HergetK. HergetRP
2.2100020
Team9.0972350

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • A. Mazur
    60 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      32%·87.7 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.2 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      12%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      5%·84.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·90.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Gibson
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      32%·80.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      21%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·91.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      38%·90.7 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      31%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      4%·83.0 mph·— whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      37%·97.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      32%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·88.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      11%·94.2 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • CU
      43%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      43%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.0 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      40%·93.3 mph·5% whiff
    • ST
      20%·81.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      3%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Herget
    32 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      38%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      48%·98.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      43%·89.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      10%·89.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      68%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·84.5 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

7

Runs

4

1

Errors

3

Current series

MIA wins series 4-3

Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4today
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1

Season series

NYM lead series 4-3

Mar 31NYMNYM10@MIAMIA4
Apr 1NYMNYM2@MIAMIA4
Apr 2NYMNYM6@MIAMIA5
Apr 7MIAMIA0@NYMNYM2
Apr 8MIAMIA5@NYMNYM10
Apr 9MIAMIA5@NYMNYM0
Aug 28MIAMIA7@NYMNYM4today
Aug 29MIAMIA9@NYMNYM19
Aug 30MIAMIA11@NYMNYM8
Aug 31MIAMIA5@NYMNYM1
Sep 26NYMNYM2@MIAMIA6
Sep 27NYMNYM5@MIAMIA0
Sep 28NYMNYM0@MIAMIA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 27pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
M. Acosta

M. Acosta

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

A. Mazur

A. Mazur

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYM 7-4. Alonso's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 5th Inning · 4-4
+27pp→ 68% WP

Alonso · homered to center (425 feet), J. Soto scored.

NYMTop 6th Inning · 4-4
+13pp→ 61% WP

Myers · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Acosta out at second, Hernández to third.

MIATop 7th Inning · 5-4
+15pp→ 73% WP

Ram · írez singled to left, Marsee scored on fielding error by left fielder Nimmo, Hicks to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA1030003007
NYM2000200004

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · NYM won 2

1
2

Inn 1

Ram 1

Nimmo 2

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Hicks 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Alonso 2

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
NYM

Play-by-play · 601 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  2. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  3. B9

    J. Soto grounded out to second.

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

    −0.5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  5. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  6. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  7. B9

    Lindor struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

    −2pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  12. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Francisco Lindor

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  13. B9

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  14. B9

    Marte flied out to center.

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  17. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Starling Marte

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  18. B9

    Faucher relieved Henriquez

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  19. B9

    Marte hit for Senger

    ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  22. T9

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  23. T9

    Lopez struck out looking.

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  29. T9

    Kevin Herget pitches to Otto Lopez

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

  30. T9

    · ·

    MIA 7·NYM 4

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

7

Runs

4

9

Hits

7

1

Errors

3

9

TB

12

0

HR

1

3

BB

3

5

K

10

18

LOB

16

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    57.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.0%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 8, 25sim 98
    35
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 97
    1510
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 97
    33
    18(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 97
    265
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 97
    296
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 96
    91
    10(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Derek HillCHW · RF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
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