MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ATL

ATL

62-75

PHI

79-58

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

43,770 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
62.6%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.3%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.3%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.8± 3.4low
Chris SaleATL
7.3± 2.8low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.5± 3.6low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.5± 1.3high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Michael Harris IIATL
2.8± 3.1high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 2.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Michael Harris IIATL
1.0± 1.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.8± 1.5high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.0± 3.0low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.5± 3.7low
Grant HolmesATL
2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 3 · PHI 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3
PHI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Profar★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Olson★1B	0-4	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Albies★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Harris II★CF	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
E. White★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. Alvarez Jr.★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Murphy★C	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Allen★SS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	2-2	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.278
V. BrujanSS	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	1-1	1	1	1	2	1	1	0
SPRINT26.632
Team	6-32	32	3	6	3	1	4	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

0-4

0-4

0-3

2-4

0-1

0-3

0-2

0-2

2-2

1-2

1-1

Team

6-32

	Pitching
H. Waldrep★SP	5.2	4	1	1	4	9	1
J. BrebbiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. DoddRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. KinleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team	9.0	5	1	1	4	13	1

Pitching

Player

5.2

1.0

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
T. Turner★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT29.798
K. Schwarber★DH	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
SPRINT25.818
B. Harper★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Bohm★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Marsh★LF	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
SPRINT28.175
N. Castellanos★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
H. Bader★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.662
B. Stott★2B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT28.688
Team	5-32	32	1	5	1	1	4	13

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI