HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ARI
ARI

ARI

67-69

3
0
LAD

LAD

77-58

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
45,701 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

ARI

league avg

LAD

LAD

.691

OPS

.715

▶

.789

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.347

4.20

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.26

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.28

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 3 · LAD 0 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0002010003
LAD0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. SnellLAD−30.0pp
  2. 2Z. GallenARI+25.7pp
  3. 3B. AlexanderARI+20.6pp

ARI · top performer

ARI
Blaze Alexander

Blaze Alexander

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

DH

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
K. Marte2B
.2891000031
G. PerdomoSS
.2883000010
C. CarrollRF
.2544110002
L. Gurriel Jr.LF
.2494110000
G. MorenoC
.2814011003
B. Alexander3B
.2343112110
T. Locklear1B
.1694000002
A. ThomasCF
.2534000003
J. LawlarLF
.0004000003
Team313431514

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Z. GallenSP
6.02003896
J. BeeksRP
1.01000119
K. BackhusRP
1.00000012
J. WoodfordRP
1.00001119
Team9.0300410146

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2783010010
M. BettsSS
.2474010000
F. Freeman1B
.3003000011
W. SmithC
.2923000011
T. HernándezLF
.2473000012
M. ConfortoDH
.1912000001
A. PagesCF
.2753010001
A. Freeland2B
.1922000002
E. Hernández1B
.2013000001
- A. CallLF
.2701000000
- D. RushingC
.1891000001
- M. RojasSS
.2501000000
Team290300410

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. SnellSP
5.14333886
B. CaspariusRP
1.00002225
A. BandaRP
0.2000018
K. YatesRP
1.00000122
J. DreyerRP
1.00000215
Team9.0433514156

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • J. Woodford
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      50%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      40%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.2 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • K. Yates
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FS
      52%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      48%·90.9 mph·17% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

3

3

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0today
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5

Season series

Series tied 4-4

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0today
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 4th Inning

ARIARI
B. Alexander

B. Alexander

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 8 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat LAD 3-0. Alexander's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 4th Inning · 2-0
+24pp→ 54% WP

Alexander · homered to left (400 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.

ARITop 6th Inning · 3-0
+10pp→ 81% WP

Moreno · singled to center, Carroll scored.

ARITop 7th Inning · 3-0
+6pp→ 86% WP

Lawlar · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0002010003
LAD0000000000

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · LAD won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Alexander 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Moreno 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
LAD

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  3. B9

    Rushing struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  8. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Dalton Rushing

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  9. B9

    Rushing hit for Call

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  10. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  11. B9

    T. Hernández walked.

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

    +1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  18. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Teoscar Hernandez

    · ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  19. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  20. B9

    Smith grounded out to second.

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

    −1pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  25. B9

    Jake Woodford pitches to Will Smith

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  26. B9

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  27. B9

    Freeman lined out to center.

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

    −3pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·LAD 0

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

0

4

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

8

TB

4

1

HR

0

5

BB

4

14

K

10

12

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    5.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.0± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    60.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.8%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.