MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4ATL

ATL

63-77

CHC

80-60

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

31,933 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
62.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
65.5%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Bryce ElderATL
4.9± 3.4low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.4± 1.2high
Matt OlsonATL
1.2± 0.9high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.9± 3.1high
Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.7high
Ian HappCHC
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Colin ReaCHC
3.3± 2.3medium
Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

CHC

.744

OPS

◀

.717

.722

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.330

5.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

3.29

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.23

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 5 · CHC 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5
CHC	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.275	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Olson1B	.268	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
O. Albies2B	.240	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.228	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Harris IICF	.249	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
H. KimSS	.375	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.234	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.240	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
L. WilliamsSS	.133	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	6	5	2	3	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.275

.268

.240

.280

.228

.249

.375

.234

.240

.133

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. ElderSP	7.0	4	1	0	0	6	101
T. KinleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	25
Team	9.0	4	1	0	2	9	138

Player

B. ElderSP

7.0

101

T. KinleyRP

1.0

R. IglesiasRP

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Hoerner2B	.288	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Busch1B	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. SuzukiRF	.244	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. HappLF	.238	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. Santana1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Castro2B	.159	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. ShawRF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. McGuireC	.220	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		30	1	4	1	0	2	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. HortonSP	5.0	0	0	0	1	6	75
B. BrownRP	1.1	1	2	2	2	3	33
D. PomeranzRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	17
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	17
P. HodgeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	6	5	5	3	12	156

Team

ATL

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs ATL.

3 sub-models, blended.