MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PHI

ATL

61-74

PHI

78-57

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

40,322 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
60.9%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.4%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.6%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.8± 3.4low
Chris SaleATL
7.3± 2.8low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.5± 3.6low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.5± 1.3high
Ozzie AlbiesATL
1.1± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Michael Harris IIATL
2.8± 3.1high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 2.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Michael Harris IIATL
1.0± 1.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.8± 1.5high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.0± 3.0low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.5± 3.7low
Grant HolmesATL
2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

ATL 1 · PHI 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
PHI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Profar★LF	1-5	5	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Olson★1B	3-5	5	0	3	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
O. Albies★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.354
M. Ozuna★DH	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Harris II★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Murphy★C	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. Alvarez Jr.★SS	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. Allen★SS	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2744
D. BaldwinC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	12-36	36	1	12	1	0	2	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-5

3-5

1-3

2-4

0-3

1-4

1-3

1-4

2-2

0-1

0-2

Team

12-36

	Pitching
B. Elder★SP	7.0	3	1	1	2	3	0
D. LeeRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	0
P. JohnsonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	0
Team	8.0	6	2	2	3	3	0

Pitching

Player

B. Elder★SP

7.0

D. LeeRP

0.1

P. JohnsonRP

0.2

Team

8.0

	Batting
T. Turner★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Schwarber★DH	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT25.818
B. Harper★1B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT2744
A. Bohm★3B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
B. Marsh★LF	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
SPRINT28.175
N. Castellanos★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Kepler★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Stott★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.688
R. Marchan★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	6-30	30	2	6	2	0	3	3

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI