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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SF
SF

SF

77-79

3
1
LAD

LAD

88-68

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
46,601 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 3 · LAD 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000000303
LAD0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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MLB·Sun, Sep 21·Final/SeriesLAD win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Los Angeles Dodgers and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Christian Koss

Christian Koss

2B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Alex Call

Alex Call

LF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF77-79
3
1
LAD88-68
SF77-79·LAD88-68
SF

SF

77-79

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000001
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33001012
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44001002
B. EldridgeB. Eldridge★DH
0-33000001
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000000
C. KossC. Koss★2B
2-44120002
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.428
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
0-11000000
P. BaileyP. BaileyC
1-22111000
SPRINT24.32
Team5-32323530210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. McDonaldT. McDonald★SP
6.0611130
S. BivensS. BivensRP
1.0000000
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.1100020
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
0.2000010
Team9.0711160
LAD

LAD

88-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-44000000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT27.354
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT2622
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
0-22000000
A. CallA. Call★LF
1-22010000
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
1-33010001
T. EdmanT. Edman2B
0-11000000
Team7-3131171016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. SheehanE. Sheehan★SP
7.01000100
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.2333200
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1000000
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0100000
Team9.05332100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • T. McDonald
    89 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      45%·86.0 mph·39% whiff
    • SI
      42%·93.0 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      59%·93.2 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      24%·79.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Walker
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      62%·96.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      38%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Bivens
    8 pitches·0% CSW
    • FC
      75%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·90.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.6 mph·— whiff

LAD

  • E. Sheehan
    84 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      48%·94.8 mph·35% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.6 mph·46% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      2%·75.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Treinen
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      60%·84.4 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
  • W. Klein
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • CU
      50%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Vesia
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      100%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 5-2

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1today

Season series

LAD win series 9-4

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Jul 12LADLAD7@SFSF8
Jul 12LADLAD2@SFSF1
Jul 13LADLAD5@SFSF2
Sep 13LADLAD1@SFSF5
Sep 14LADLAD13@SFSF7
Sep 14LADLAD10@SFSF2
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 26pp · Top 8th Inning

SFSF
C. Koss

C. Koss

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

T. McDonald

T. McDonald

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
A. Call

A. Call

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

E. Sheehan

E. Sheehan

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 1 H

How it ended

SF beat LAD 3-1. Bailey's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (26pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 7th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 88% WP

Conforto · singled to left, Muncy scored, Pages to second.

SFTop 8th Inning · 1-1
+26pp→ 74% WP

Bailey · hit a ground rule double, Koss scored, Gilbert to third.

SFTop 8th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 81% WP

Adames · walked, Gilbert scored, Devers to second, Bailey to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000000303
LAD0000001001

Period scoring

SF won 1 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Conforto 1

3
0

Inn 8

Bailey 1

0
0

Inn 9

SF
LAD

Play-by-play · 509 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 3·LAD 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  3. B9

    Conforto struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  11. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Michael Conforto

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  12. B9

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  13. B9

    Pages grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

    −3pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  20. B9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Andy Pages

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  21. B9

    Walker relieved Lucchesi

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  22. B9

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  23. B9

    Muncy struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

    −5pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  28. B9

    Joey Lucchesi pitches to Max Muncy

    ·

    SF 3·LAD 1

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SF 3·LAD 1

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SF 3·LAD 1

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

1

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

7

TB

8

0

HR

0

2

BB

1

10

K

6

16

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    61.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.6%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 30, 25sim 96
    62
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    61
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    64
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    153
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    243
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 94
    155
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
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