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  • MLBMid 7
    MIN 7@PIT 8
    +34.9ppmedium
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    KC 4@TEX 3
    -50.7ppmedium
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    BOS 2@CLE 1
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    +51.1pplow
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    TOR 4@BAL 1
    -48.8pplow
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    MIA 1@NYM 4
    +49.6pplow
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    LAA 7@TB 3
    -71.5pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    MIL 2@HOU 6
    +58.9pplow
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    LA 16@CON 20
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
ATL

ATL

61-75

2
3
PHI

PHI

79-57

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,462 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

ATL 2 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
ATL00000100012
PHI00100000023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 97
    155
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 97
    153
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 97
    153
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 96
    151
    22(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    293
    19(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    64
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Atlanta Braves, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Weston Wilson

Weston Wilson

3B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
ATL61-75
2
3
PHI79-57
ATL61-75·PHI79-57
ATL

ATL

61-75

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
2-55120000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000002
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.354
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-44020000
SPRINT26.632
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-33000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000002
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-44011001
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000001
J. FraleyJ. FraleyRF
0-11100001
M. OzunaM. OzunaDH
0-11000000
V. BrujanV. BrujanSS
0-11000000
Team9-37372920010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
6.0311191
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000020
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.2100110
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.1000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0000010
H. StrattonH. StrattonRP
0.1121010
D. DoddD. DoddRP
0.1100010
Team9.26322151
PHI

PHI

79-57

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
3-44032011
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-44000002
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000001
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000003
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44100003
SPRINT26.632
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-33100001
SPRINT27.148
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-44000003
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-22000000
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
1-22111100
B. StottB. Stott2B
1-11010010
SPRINT28.688
B. MarshB. MarshLF
1-22010001
Team6-34343631215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SanchezC. Sanchez★SP
7.0711080
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100000
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000020
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0110000
Team10.09210100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • C. Sale
    78 pitches·37% CSW
    • SL
      46%·78.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      42%·94.8 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.5 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      1%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • CU
      59%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      92%·88.0 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      8%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    8 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      63%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Dodd
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      75%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Stratton
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
  • D. Lee
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      75%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.0 mph·— whiff

PHI

  • C. Sanchez
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      40%·96.0 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      39%·87.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.0 mph·8% whiff
  • T. Banks
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SL
      53%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·93.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Duran
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·100.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·97.9 mph·100% whiff
    • KC
      14%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • M. Strahm
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      42%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      42%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 5-2

May 27ATLATL0@PHIPHI2
May 28ATLATL0@PHIPHI0
May 29ATLATL4@PHIPHI5
May 29ATLATL9@PHIPHI3
Aug 28ATLATL4@PHIPHI19
Aug 29ATLATL1@PHIPHI2
Aug 30ATLATL2@PHIPHI3today
Aug 31ATLATL3@PHIPHI1

Season series

PHI leads series 8-4

Apr 8PHIPHI5@ATLATL7
Apr 9PHIPHI4@ATLATL3
Apr 10PHIPHI2@ATLATL4
May 27ATLATL0@PHIPHI2
May 28ATLATL0@PHIPHI0
May 29ATLATL4@PHIPHI5
May 29ATLATL9@PHIPHI3
Jun 27PHIPHI13@ATLATL0
Jun 28PHIPHI1@ATLATL6
Jun 29PHIPHI2@ATLATL1
Aug 28ATLATL4@PHIPHI19
Aug 29ATLATL1@PHIPHI2
Aug 30ATLATL2@PHIPHI3today
Aug 31ATLATL3@PHIPHI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 71pp · Bottom 10th Inning

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
W. Wilson

W. Wilson

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Sanchez

C. Sanchez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 7 H

How it ended

PHI beat ATL 3-2. Turner's play in the bottom 10th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (71pp).

Win probability

PHI vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 10th Inning · 2-1
+27pp→ 63% WP

Alvarez Jr. · singled to right, Fraley scored.

ATLBottom 10th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 68% WP

Bader · struck out swinging.

PHIBottom 10th Inning · 2-3
+71pp→ 100% WP

Turner · singled to right, Bohm scored and Castellanos scored, Stott to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
ATL00000100012
PHI00100000023

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · PHI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Wilson 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Olson 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
2

Inn 10

Jr. 1

Turner 2

ATL
PHI

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 3

  2. B10

    Turner singled to right, Bohm scored and Castellanos scored, Stott to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 3

    +71pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 3

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  6. B10

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 3

  7. B10

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  8. B10

    Marsh struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

    −22pp

  9. B10

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  10. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  11. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  12. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  14. B10

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Brandon Marsh

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  15. B10

    Dodd relieved Stratton

    ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  16. B10

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  17. B10

    Stott singled to right, Castellanos to second, Bohm to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

    +20pp

  18. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  19. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  20. B10

    Hunter Stratton pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  21. B10

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  22. B10

    Bader struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

    −17pp

  23. B10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  24. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  25. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  26. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  27. B10

    Hunter Stratton pitches to Harrison Bader

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  28. B10

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

  29. B10

    Castellanos hit by pitch.

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

    +4pp

  30. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 2·PHI 1

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

2

Runs

3

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

11

TB

11

0

HR

1

0

BB

2

10

K

15

13

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.9%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.4%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.