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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHC
ATL

ATL

62-77

3
4
CHC

CHC

80-59

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
32,618 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

ATL 3 · CHC 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATL0002100003
CHC004000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 3, 25sim 97
    155
    16(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 97
    152
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    15
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    61
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    64
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 96
    14
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Atlanta Braves, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ozzie Albies

Ozzie Albies

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATL62-77
3
4
CHC80-59
ATL62-77·CHC80-59
ATL

ATL

62-77

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000001
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-33110011
SPRINT25.513
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
2-44121101
SPRINT27.354
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000000
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-44020000
E. WhiteE. White★CF
1-44111101
SPRINT30.499+
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-33000000
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-22000000
D. BaldwinD. BaldwinC
0-11000000
Team8-3333382215
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WentzJ. Wentz★RP
4.0744181
R. MunozR. MunozRP
2.0000210
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000000
D. DoddD. DoddRP
1.0000000
Team8.0744391
CHC

CHC

80-59

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT28.278
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
2-33123100
SPRINT26.123
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33100010
SPRINT27.457
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000002
J. TurnerJ. Turner★1B
1-22010001
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.662
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-22000012
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-22000011
K. AlcantaraK. Alcantara★RF
1-33110002
W. CastroW. Castro2B
0-11000000
M. BuschM. Busch1B
0-22000000
Team7-3030474139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ImanagaS. Imanaga★SP
6.0533122
D. PomeranzD. PomeranzRP
1.0100010
C. ThielbarC. ThielbarRP
1.0000010
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0200010
Team9.0833152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATL

  • J. Wentz
    96 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      36%·83.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      34%·93.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      25%·78.6 mph·30% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.5 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Munoz
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      62%·97.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      38%·90.8 mph·40% whiff
  • H. Harris
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      92%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.8 mph·— whiff
  • D. Dodd
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      67%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.7 mph·0% whiff

CHC

  • S. Imanaga
    78 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.1 mph·8% whiff
    • FS
      32%·83.5 mph·46% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      80%·99.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      5%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • D. Pomeranz
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      74%·93.9 mph·13% whiff
    • KC
      26%·86.2 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Thielbar
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      45%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      27%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Sep 1ATLATL6@CHCCHC7
Sep 2ATLATL3@CHCCHC4today
Sep 3ATLATL5@CHCCHC1

Season series

CHC lead series 2-0

Sep 1ATLATL6@CHCCHC7
Sep 2ATLATL3@CHCCHC4today
Sep 3ATLATL5@CHCCHC1
Sep 8CHCCHC1@ATLATL4
Sep 9CHCCHC6@ATLATL1
Sep 10CHCCHC3@ATLATL2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATL ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

ATLATL
O. Albies

O. Albies

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Wentz

J. Wentz

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

CHCCHC
K. Tucker

K. Tucker

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

S. Imanaga

S. Imanaga

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat ATL 4-3. Tucker's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CHC vs ATL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-3
+18pp→ 90% WP

Tucker · homered to left center (381 feet), Alcántara scored and Hoerner scored.

ATLTop 5th Inning · 3-4
+9pp→ 25% WP

White · homered to left center (409 feet).

CHCTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+14pp→ 100% WP

White · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATL0002100003
CHC00400000—4

Period scoring

ATL won 2 · CHC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
4

Inn 3

Tucker 3

2
0

Inn 4

Albies 2

1
0

Inn 5

White 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATL
CHC

Play-by-play · 528 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  2. T9

    White flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

    +14pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  4. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Eli White

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  5. T9

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  6. T9

    Kim reached on infield single to second, Williams to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

    −7pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  9. T9

    Williams stole second.

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  10. T9

    Williams stole second.

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  14. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  15. T9

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  16. T9

    Harris II flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

    +9pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  18. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Michael Harris II

    · ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  19. T9

    Williams ran for Ozuna

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  20. T9

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  21. T9

    Ozuna singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

    −7pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

  30. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Marcell Ozuna

    ·

    ATL 3·CHC 4

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

4

8

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

16

TB

10

2

HR

1

1

BB

3

5

K

9

9

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CHC vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.6%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    61.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    60.5%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.