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FINAL+7SF
BAL

BAL

60-75

8
15
SF

SF

67-68

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,043 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

BAL 8 · SF 15 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL1030200118
SF4212104115

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Baltimore Orioles, 15–8. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo

3B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Dominic Smith

Dominic Smith

DH

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL60-75
8
15
SF67-68
BAL60-75·SF67-68
BAL

BAL

60-75

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-44120011
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44210013
SPRINT26.530
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-44110000
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
3-55134000
E. RiveraE. Rivera★3B
1-44012001
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-44000002
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44111101
SPRINT2872
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-33000000
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
1-33210010
L. VazquezL. VazquezSS
0-11001000
D. JohnsonD. JohnsonCF
0-11000001
Team10-37378108139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. KremerD. Kremer★SP
3.0977210
C. MartinC. MartinRP
2.0233122
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.1100120
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.2651030
Team8.0181511482
SF

SF

67-68

15
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-55210013
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
4-66341001
SPRINT27.457
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44222012
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-33212010
SPRINT28.175
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
2-33124110
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-55010002
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
4-55343100
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-55110000
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
2-55122000
Team18-4141151814248
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. RayR. Ray★SP
4.1666350
S. BivensS. BivensRP
1.2000000
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0100010
K. WinnK. WinnRP
2.0322031
Team9.01088391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SF

  • M. Gage
    33 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

18

8

Runs

15

3

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 30BALBAL8@SFSF15today
Aug 30BALBAL11@SFSF1
Aug 31BALBAL2@SFSF13

Season series

SF leads series 1-0

Aug 30BALBAL8@SFSF15today
Aug 30BALBAL11@SFSF1
Aug 31BALBAL2@SFSF13

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 1st Inning

BALBAL
C. Mayo

C. Mayo

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 1 K · 7 ER · 9 H · 2 BB

SFSF
D. Smith

D. Smith

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

R. Ray

R. Ray

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SF beat BAL 15-8.

Win probability

SF vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 46% WP

Mountcastle · doubled to right, Holliday scored.

SFBottom 1st Inning · 1-4
+8pp→ 89% WP

Matos · singled to left, Chapman scored and Devers scored, Schmitt to second.

BALTop 3rd Inning · 4-6
+8pp→ 17% WP

Rivera · singled to left, J. Jackson scored and Mountcastle scored, Rivera to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL1030200118
SF42121041—15

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · SF won 4

1
4

Inn 1

Mountcastle 1

Matos 2

0
2

Inn 2

Devers 1

3
1

Inn 3

Rivera 2

Gilbert 1

0
2

Inn 4

Smith 2

2
1

Inn 5

Mountcastle 2

Matos 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
4

Inn 7

Devers 2

1
1

Inn 8

Mayo 1

Gilbert 1

1

Inn 9

BAL
SF

Play-by-play · 644 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  2. T9

    Mountcastle grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  3. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  4. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  5. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  6. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  12. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Ryan Mountcastle

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  13. T9

    ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  14. T9

    Vázquez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, A. Jackson scored, Holliday out at second.

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  18. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Luis Vazquez

    · ·

    BAL 8·SF 15

  19. T9

    Vázquez hit for Henderson

    ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  20. T9

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  21. T9

    J. Jackson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  28. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Jeremiah Jackson

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  29. T9

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

  30. T9

    Holliday singled to right, A. Jackson to third.

    · ·

    BAL 7·SF 15

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

SF

Home

8

Runs

15

10

Hits

18

3

Errors

0

15

TB

26

1

HR

2

3

BB

4

9

K

8

16

LOB

20

Player projections

SF vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    53.4%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 players in cohort
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 22, 25sim 92
    2112
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 91
    12
    26(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 91
    249
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 90
    1117
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 90
    1714
    23(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 22, 25sim 90
    246
    30(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs