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FINAL+4TB
STL

STL

64-66

6
10
TB

TB

62-67

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

STL 6 · TB 10 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0100014006
TB1222002110

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →

Player projections

TB vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.5%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    52.8%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    12
    26(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 95
    236
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 95
    249
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    311
    11(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 93
    238
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 93
    1711
    24(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays held off St. Louis Cardinals, 10–6.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Nathan Church

Nathan Church

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Tristan Gray

Tristan Gray

3B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL64-66
6
10
TB62-67
STL64-66·TB62-67
STL

STL

64-66

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
0-55000000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-55110002
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-55222101
SPRINT26.838
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-22010020
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-33100001
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT27.354
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
1-44011000
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44110001
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
2-44122100
SPRINT28.586
Team9-3636696226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
2.21054112
A. VenezianoA. VenezianoRP
3.0222140
R. FernandezR. FernandezRP
1.1122111
J. AlcalaJ. AlcalaRP
1.0311001
Team8.016109364
TB

TB

62-67

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-55020000
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44111111
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-55211102
SPRINT27.148
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
3-44230000
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
4-55142000
SPRINT2993
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-33000010
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
2-44223101
BB. Seymour★1B
1-44011002
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
2-33122110
SPRINT26.428
E. PereiraE. PereiraRF
0-11100000
Team16-3838101610436
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
6.1644221
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.2322011
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000020
Team9.0966262

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. Mikolas
    58 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      26%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·75.9 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      5%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Veneziano
    57 pitches·35% CSW
    • ST
      33%·81.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·91.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      19%·92.2 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      19%·85.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • R. Fernandez
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      32%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      28%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      28%·85.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      12%·91.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Alcala
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      56%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·90.5 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • A. Houser
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      61%·94.7 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      15%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      5%·95.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      4%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      48%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.3 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      44%·88.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      39%·96.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·84.4 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

16

6

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 21STLSTL7@TBTB4
Aug 22STLSTL6@TBTB10today
Aug 24STLSTL2@TBTB7

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Aug 21STLSTL7@TBTB4
Aug 22STLSTL6@TBTB10today
Aug 24STLSTL2@TBTB7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

STLSTL
N. Church

N. Church

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Veneziano

A. Veneziano

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

TBTB
T. Gray

T. Gray

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat STL 10-6. Gray's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

TB vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBBottom 2nd Inning · 1-3
+18pp→ 78% WP

Gray · homered to right (359 feet), Williams scored.

STLTop 7th Inning · 6-7
+15pp→ 26% WP

Contreras · homered to right center (367 feet), Herrera scored.

TBBottom 7th Inning · 6-9
+12pp→ 95% WP

Williams · homered to center (410 feet), Pereira scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0100014006
TB12220021—10

Period scoring

STL won 2 · TB won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Lowe 1

1
2

Inn 2

Pozo 1

Gray 2

0
2

Inn 3

Williams 1

0
2

Inn 4

Mangum 2

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Saggese 1

4
2

Inn 7

Church 2

Williams 2

0
1

Inn 8

Caminero 1

0

Inn 9

STL
TB

Play-by-play · 587 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  2. T9

    Contreras struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  7. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Willson Contreras

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  8. T9

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  9. T9

    Herrera struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

    +0.5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  16. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Ivan Herrera

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  17. T9

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  18. T9

    Nootbaar grounded out to second.

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  21. T9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Lars Nootbaar

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  22. T9

    Fairbanks relieved Baker

    ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    STL 6·TB 10

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    STL 6·TB 10

  25. B8

    · ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  26. B8

    Pereira grounded into double play, third to second to first, Mangum out at second.

    · ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  28. B8

    Jorge Alcala pitches to Everson Pereira

    · ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  29. B8

    · ·

    STL 6·TB 10

  30. B8

    Mangum singled to left, J. Lowe to third.

    · ·

    STL 6·TB 10

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

TB

Home

6

Runs

10

9

Hits

16

1

Errors

0

16

TB

31

2

HR

4

2

BB

3

6

K

6

13

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872