MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13ATH

ATH

66-77

174

LAA

66-76

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

35,816 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
49.9%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.7%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 4.4low
Jose SorianoLAA
6.6± 2.9low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.8± 2.0low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high
Zach NetoLAA
1.1± 1.1high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Zach NetoLAA
2.1± 2.5high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.7± 1.6high
Mike TroutLAA
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Vaughn GrissomLAA
1.0± 1.9high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.5high
Mike TroutLAA
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.0± 4.0low
Jack KochanowiczLAA
3.0± 2.9low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 17 · LAA 4 (by 13)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	3	4	0	1	0	1	0	5	3	17
LAA	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
S. Langeliers★C	3-6	6	1	3	2	0	1	1
SPRINT28.586
B. Rooker★DH	1-7	7	1	1	1	0	0	1
N. Kurtz★1B	1-3	3	3	1	1	1	2	2
SPRINT26.632
C. Thomas★RF	2-5	5	4	2	3	1	1	1
J. Wilson★SS	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
T. Soderstrom★LF	2-3	3	0	2	4	0	0	0
D. Hernaiz★SS	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0
Z. Gelof★3B	2-6	6	2	2	0	0	0	2
L. Butler★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Harris3B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. SchuemannSS	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CortesRF	2-2	2	2	2	3	1	0	0
SPRINT25.716
J. BledayLF	2-2	2	1	2	3	1	0	0
SPRINT27.457
Team	21-49	49	17	21	17	4	6	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

3-6

1-7

1-3

2-5

3-4

2-3

1-5

2-6

0-3

1-1

1-2

2-2

2-2

Team

21-49

	Pitching
J.T. Ginn★SP	5.0	5	1	1	0	5	0
H. HarrisRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	3	0
S. McGoughRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	2
B. BassoRP	1.0	3	1	0	0	0	0
Team	9.0	11	4	3	3	9	2

Pitching

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
Z. Neto★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Trout★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.688
Y. Moncada★3B	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
SPRINT26.735
T. Ward★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Adell★RF	3-5	5	1	3	1	1	0	1
SPRINT27.867
L. Rengifo★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
O. Peraza★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. O'Hoppe★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Teodosio★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. Davidson1B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. TaylorCF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. LugoLF	2-2	2	1	2	2	1	0	0
Team	11-39	39	4	11	4	2	3	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

1-4

1-2

1-3

3-5

0-4

1-3

0-3

1-4

1-1

0-1

0-3

2-2

Team

11-39

	Pitching
Y. Kikuchi★SP	2.0	6	7	7	3	1	1
C. SilsethRP	1.2	2	1	1	1	3	1
J. FerminRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0
SPRINT27.148
B. BurkeRP	1.1	1	1	0	0	2	0
R. StephensonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	2.0	12	8	8	0	1	2
Team	9.0	21	17	16	6	8	4

Pitching

Player

2.0

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

Team

ATH

LAA