MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CIN

CIN

62-57

148

PIT

51-68

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

21,239 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.8%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.6± 2.1low
Paul SkenesPIT
6.6± 3.3low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 3.8low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.3± 1.1medium
Sal StewartCIN
1.3± 1.4high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Nathaniel LoweCIN
2.2± 1.7high
Sal StewartCIN
2.2± 2.7high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Nathaniel LoweCIN
0.8± 1.0high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.8± 0.9high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.5± 3.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 2.3low
Brady SingerCIN
3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 14 · PIT 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	4	0	0	3	0	2	5	14
PIT	0	0	0	3	1	0	1	3	0	8

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Friedl★CF	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	2	2
SPRINT26.838
G. Lux★LF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
E. De La Cruz★SS	2-5	5	2	2	1	0	1	2
SPRINT2872
M. Andujar★DH	2-3	3	3	2	3	1	1	1
SPRINT26.530
A. Hays★LF	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
N. Marte★RF	3-5	5	3	3	4	1	0	1
SPRINT28.992
S. Steer★LF	3-5	5	2	3	4	1	0	0
SPRINT28.483
J. Trevino★C	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. Hayes★3B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. McLain2B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team	14-40	40	14	14	14	3	6	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

0-3

2-5

2-3

1-5

3-5

3-5

1-5

1-4

0-1

Team

14-40

	Pitching
Z. Littell★SP	4.2	9	4	4	0	3	0
S. BarlowRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	0
S. MollRP	1.1	0	1	1	1	2	0
L. MeyRP	0.1	0	0	0	3	0	0
G. AshcraftRP	1.1	3	3	1	1	1	0
B. SuterRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0
Team	9.0	16	8	6	5	8	0

Pitching

Player

4.2

0.1

1.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
S. Horwitz★1B	2-5	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT24.85
T. Pham★LF	1-6	6	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Reynolds★LF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.969
O. Cruz★CF	1-5	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT28.483
N. Gonzales★3B	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. Suwinski★RF	2-4	4	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. Triolo★3B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
H. Davis★C	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa★2B	3-5	5	1	3	2	0	0	1
SPRINT27.560
L. PegueroSS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BartC	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0

Team	16-42	42	8	16	6	0	5	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI